tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164624935880213422024-03-20T02:05:32.757-07:00Bring more dataJoshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-49152582103895657402024-02-20T10:09:00.000-08:002024-02-21T00:58:26.130-08:00Bad Blood (MIS's version)<p>I made a new year's resolution to write less about MIS this year, because I have two very cool assessment ventures (<a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" target="_blank">Smartgrade</a> and <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" target="_blank">Carousel</a>, thanks for asking) and they're growing fast and keeping me busy... and so imagine my delight when everything started kicking off in MIS world over the past two months. I've held off from blogging about it until now because, look, my comfort zone is writing about - and producing - pretty charts containing data. This blog is not called "Bring More Legal Disputes" for a reason. </p><p>But as Taylor would say, now we got problems, and I'm not sure how we're going to solve them. And neither are you, because people keep DM-ing me to ask me what the hell is going on. So I've decided to set out a timeline of the key events in the words of those <span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">who are either directly involved or who I judge to be best placed to comment (Ms. Swift does not make the list)</span>. I'm not going to provide my own analysis since there appears to be open and ongoing litigation around these issues, and<span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> I think it’s important to let that play out</span>. I'd encourage you to read the statements for yourselves and draw your own conclusions.</p><p>So, the timeline:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>In December 2023, <b>SIMS</b> put out <a href="https://customer.support-ess.com/csm?id=kb_article_view&sysparm_article=KB0054129&sys_kb_id=6c11dab097d3b950a4b17e371153af49&spa=1" target="_blank">a statement</a> saying that "It has recently come to our attention that some customers moving to other MIS suppliers are being incorrectly advised to provide copies of (or access to) their SIMS and/or FMS database to the new provider for the purposes of migrating data to the new system." They went on to say that any third party encouraging usage of backup files "will be inducing [the customer] to breach their contract(s) with ESS."</li><li>This month, <b>Arbor</b> and <b>Bromcom</b> put out their own statements in response. </li><ul><li><a href="https://arbor-education.com/blog-arbor-switching-guarantee/?utm_content=281823058&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&hss_channel=lcp-2649296" target="_blank"><b>Arbor's</b></a> said that "many schools feel unable to switch MIS" as a result, and so they're offering an "Arbor Switching Guarantee" that means "Arbor will take legal responsibility when you transfer your school data to us via backup file" and "Arbor will cover the cost of your MIS license until your SIMS contract ends in March 2025".</li><li><a href="https://bromcom.com/news/support-for-sims-schools?utm_campaign=ba&utm_medium=owned&utm_source=LinkedIn" target="_blank"><b>Bromcom's</b></a> said that "If ESS initiate any legal action against schools, Bromcom will offer an indemnity to cover approved legal costs for these schools. Furthermore in the unlikely event that a damages payment to ESS materialises, Bromcom will also take responsibility for this payment." They also said that "Bromcom has applied to the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) and is applying to the High Court for an injunction to halt this anti-competitive behaviour by ESS Ltd." </li></ul><li><b>SIMS</b> swiftly responded with <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/mis-migrations-setting-story-straight" target="_blank">a blogpost the same day</a> entitled "MIS migrations – setting the story straight". It started by saying "ESS’ intellectual property (IP) is being systematically and unlawfully misused by certain competitors, who are trying to conceal their misuse of ESS’ intellectual property through a smokescreen of allegations of anti-competitor behaviour." It also firmed up the timescales that led to their announcement, stating that "In October 2023, ESS obtained actionable evidence that its IP was being unlawfully used by certain competitors, who have subsequently tried to excuse their actions on the basis that this misuse was required to migrate customers from SIMS to their MIS. Specifically, we established that competitors were inducing our customers to breach their contracts with ESS by providing them with full backup copies of their SIMS databases, which in addition to customer data contain over 1.5 million lines of ESS program code and other valuable ESS IP."</li><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/chrisjameskirk_mis-migrations-setting-the-story-straight-activity-7162469784255717376-pIoi/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&utm_campaign=ba" target="_blank"><b>Bromcom's</b> Chief Commercial Officer</a> Chris Kirk then took to LinkedIn referring to this SIMS blog, and also citing <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/63bc28138fa8f55e35d1b100/Annex_and_appendices_FINAL_.pdf" target="_blank">ESS SIMS's submission to the Competition and Markets Authority in 2022</a> which included these words about the migration process from SIMS to Bromcom: "the Bromcom migration process is made up of .. a final week in which the Bromcom system goes live, data having been copied across from a backup of the school’s SIMS database". Kirk also cited the part of the submission that said "Implementation and migration to a new MIS is an organised and standardised process" and asked how this could be reconciled with SIMS's assertion that they only established that competitors were requesting backups in October 2023.</li><li><b>SIMS</b> published <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/mis-migrations-setting-story-straight-part-2" target="_blank">part 2 of their "setting the story straight" series</a>, which stated that "It suits others to suggest we are making things difficult, but this is not true", and "For more than a decade migrating data from SIMS has been possible using SIMS Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). Alternatively, a school can use our reporting facility or work with aggregators such as Wonde or Xporter (previously GroupCall Xporter) to extract the data for them." It also responded on Chris Kirk's point by saying "As long-standing users of the SIMS APIs, ParentPay reasonably assumed that anyone wanting to extract customer data from SIMS would be following the rules and either use SIMS reports, write programs that used the APIs, or engage with aggregators. Our understanding of the migration process was that schools made a backup copy of the SIMS database and then either produced XML reports from this copy or provided an ESS technical integrator with API access to the copy for the purposes of programmatic extraction."</li><li><b>James Randall</b> (Chief Architect of the SIMS suite from 2011 to 2014) wrote two <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7163454638086688770/?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_updateV2%3A%28urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7163454638086688770%2CFEED_DETAIL%2CEMPTY%2CDEFAULT%2Cfalse%29" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7163869574562586624/?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_updateV2%3A%28urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7163869574562586624%2CFEED_DETAIL%2CEMPTY%2CDEFAULT%2Cfalse%29" target="_blank">posts</a> with his views on the SIMS approach. <span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">He commented that</span> "I understand what SIMS are doing here is not just banning sharing a backup but also the running of scripts and third party tools and so even doing a data dump is not allowed. The defence to this being that SIMS are "protecting schools" from bad and misinterpreted data. That, to put it bluntly, is the new MIS vendors problem - not SIMS. And is something that could still occur with the "official" API usage (it does get misinterpreted by Partners, of course it does)."</li><li><b>Schools Week</b> have also been <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/competition-watchdog-pulled-into-mis-dispute-again/" target="_blank">tracking the issue</a>. Their article includes comments from Stone King, who say they “have been approached by a number of very concerned clients in relation to this issue”. The article quotes Tony Pidgeon, a partner at the firm, saying: “We believe the stance taken by ESS will have a significant impact throughout the sector on the ability of schools to successfully switch provider and we are in the process of reviewing the matter in detail with those clients.”</li><li>Other notable comment has been made by <a href="https://finnemoreconsulting.com/switching-mis-has-data-migration-just-become-a-whole-lot-trickier-how-suppliers-are-taking-the-stress-out-of-data-migration-to-ensure-planned-mis-switches-dont-get-derailed/" target="_blank"><b>the Finnemores</b></a> (both previously SIMS employees under the previous owners) and <b>WhichMIS</b>, who have published <a href="https://www.whichmis.com/does-this-amount-to-a-declaration-of-war/" target="_blank">three</a> <a href="https://www.whichmis.com/pressure-on-all-fronts/" target="_blank">recent</a> <a href="https://www.whichmis.com/ess-sims-responds-to-concerns-over-data-migration/" target="_blank">blogs</a> on the subject.</li></ul><div><div>So that's where we are. I'm not planning to write about every twist and turn as this story develops - when more happens I'm hoping Schools Week will report on it and I'll merrily repost them on all social platforms (with the possible exception of Instagram - my output on there is mostly weak puns and photos of bread I have baked. You probably don't want to follow me on Instagram). Instead, I'll look forward to covering future changes in market share, which of course may well be influenced by how this whole thing plays out...</div></div><p></p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-58402281985862473012023-12-11T12:41:00.000-08:002023-12-11T12:46:31.710-08:00MIS MARKET MOVES WINTER 2023: Has SIMS stabilised?<p><span face=""Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-size: 13.2px;">DISCLAIMER: </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">I have past commercial relationships with a number of MIS vendors. I'm also a co-founder of two assessment ventures - <a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Smartgrade</a> and <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Carousel</a> - that exist in markets adjacent to the MIS. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT senior leader trying to get a handle on MIS and edtech. </i><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">I also now provide MIS market datasets as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me via <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.</i> </p><div>A year ago, reflecting on the news that 18% of SIMS's schools had left them over the previous 12 months, I wrote:</div><div><br /></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><i>In some senses the MIS market data for the next year tells an even more important than this batch of data from the past year. 2022 was about seeing how big the decline was; but we've known for some time that a decline was inevitable. The big question now is: can SIMS stop the bleeding and return to a relatively stable market share? Come back next Christmas to find out! </i></div></blockquote><div></div><div><br /></div><div>I said this for two reasons:</div><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>ParentPay (owners of SIMS) had imposed <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/schools-told-to-hold-off-on-three-year-mis-contract/" target="_blank">three year contracts</a> on SIMS customers, at considerable reputational cost, and if all had gone well with the strategy they would have meant that schools became locked in over the past year, stabilising their market share.</li><li>I am a canny storyteller and I wanted to give you a reason to keep coming back for jovial MIS market analysis and pretty data visualisation.</li></ol></div><div>So the news you're all waiting for is: did SIMS stabilise?</div><div><br /></div><div>Nope:</div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicOCmgNx89wxzYmiOsXlaiUqBpJXXAemtveB4bwDs5MWYy_0jHE7xsaK7Lml2itpSZAlPk6NFMQvMtxgKx0MT1kAaJdSMhIpCr8u7GO58-s9nrSfdYiqg-i1UrIm431Tfv_PKRcL37h9AtZ2geJ9PCgvY8-U3ggIxDwQ7aIXagbPWurLB0E6rg3DhfD4Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1244" height="451" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicOCmgNx89wxzYmiOsXlaiUqBpJXXAemtveB4bwDs5MWYy_0jHE7xsaK7Lml2itpSZAlPk6NFMQvMtxgKx0MT1kAaJdSMhIpCr8u7GO58-s9nrSfdYiqg-i1UrIm431Tfv_PKRcL37h9AtZ2geJ9PCgvY8-U3ggIxDwQ7aIXagbPWurLB0E6rg3DhfD4Q=w518-h451" width="518" /></a></div><br /><br /></div></div><div>This chart shows the percentage of a vendor's schools that left them over the preceding 12 months. SIMS churned 9.9% of their schools this past year, after losing 18.2% in 2022, taking them down to an overall market share of exactly 50% of English state schools. So while the rate of decline is lower, it's still a major drop compared to any other historical benchmark: healthy MIS generally churn at 2% of less. It's also particularly concerning for SIMS given that their 3 year contract initiative was presumably designed precisely to stop schools switching. </div><div><br /></div><div>So what's happened? Well, first, the 3 year thing didn't get implemented cleanly - the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) investigated, and then <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/competition-watchdog-ends-sims-probe-as-break-clause-confirmed/" target="_blank">came to an agreement with SIMS that allowed certain schools to apply for a 12 month break clause</a>, which may have led to a group of delayed switchers. Second, the main MIS challengers all have policies now that mean schools won't pay until their existing MIS agreement ends if they switch while in contract. And third, the SIMS cloud product (Next Gen) is being released module by module, and <a href="https://customer.support-ess.com/csm?id=kb_article_view&sysparm_article=KB0053829&sys_kb_id=fc8f0a591b79b510455842a7b04bcb1a&spa=1#accordion7" target="_blank">according to the latest plans</a> it won't be "fully complete" until 2026.</div><div><br /></div><div>But there's another thing that shouldn't be overlooked: when you're talking to your customers about controversial contract changes, it's hard then to pivot to discussing with them why they should be loyal to you. You see quite a high turnover of staff in edtech account manager roles across the sector, but the people <i>buying</i> MIS may have spent years - even decades - in a MIS commissioning role. What's more, buyers have long memories, and in my experience the stickiest memories are the negative experiences (which is a point that other vendors would also benefit from bearing in mind). So while I've heard some recent noises about the company <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/joshuaperryuk_learn-more-about-sims-next-gen-csm-activity-7138110893128654848-GPac?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop" target="_blank">opening up</a> and softening their messaging, in order to change market perceptions I think they'd need a sustained multi-year charm offensive that helps customers to move beyond the headlines of recent times. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, there are plenty of stories other than SIMS's decline, so let's get to those shall we? First, here's the data; my analysis of what it shows is below. </div><div><br /></div>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1702257292989" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='MIS Oct 2023 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2023_10MISdatav1/MISOct2023/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2023_10MISdatav1/MISOct2023" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2023_10MISdatav1/MISOct2023/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1702257292989'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='580px';vizElement.style.height='727px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
<div><br /></div><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>The Key, led by Arbor, now have 37% of all English state schools</b>. Following a year during which The Key completed the purchase of Integris from RM, the company now boasts 3 products with a combined market share of 37%. If the rate of change from the last 12 months continues, The Key will have comfortably more schools than SIMS within two years. Or to put it another way, by 2026 when SIMS Next Gen is a fully fledged cloud MIS, their position as market leader may be a thing of the past. </li><li><b>Arbor's share of wins in 2022/23 was its best ever</b>. Arbor won 1,212 schools in the past year - 71% of the 1,706 schools who switched. Last year the equivalent number was 61%; before that they were never above 50%. Admittedly, they were helped by 150 or so schools moving from products that are now within the group (i.e. ScholarPack and Integris), but even ignoring those, by my calculations Arbor would have won a record two thirds of switchers. This is, unarguably, a dominant position. </li><li><b>Bromcom are up to a 12.5% market share when measured by pupils</b>. The only challenger achieving notable growth is Bromcom. They added 368 schools this last year, which would have looked like a chart-topping number in just about any year prior to 2020. What's more, their share of secondaries is just shy of 20%, putting them in second position in this segment ahead of Arbor (16%) and behind SIMS (62%). That's impressive by any standard! All that said, it remains a head-scratcher as to why they're not closer to parity with Arbor. Clearly lots of schools like and trust the system, but I do wonder whether reputational issues linked to their <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/software-supplier-takes-legal-action-against-second-trust/" target="_blank">high profile legal action against two MATs</a> continue to hold them back. They did <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/mis-bromcom-arbor-sims-united-learning-legal-case/" target="_blank">win the case with United Learning</a> - and in fairness to Bromcom it is clear from the judgment that significant mistakes were made during the procurement process - but then again (to quote Schools Week) 'the judge also said that no rule breaches were "deliberate" or in "bad faith".' So if you're a MIS commissioner reading that, are you more likely to see Bromcom as being vindicated, or do you see a business that might come for you if you unwittingly don't get your process right? Or, to put it another way, I feel like a charm offensive could benefit Bromcom too! </li><li><b>Ed:gen is over 100 schools</b>. When I looked at the <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2023/08/mis-market-moves-summer-2023-fewer-than.html" target="_blank">termly data from May 2023</a> there was not much evidence of recent growth for IRIS's Ed:gen, with just 4 schools added in the first two terms of the academic year. But it turns out that didn't tell the real story of their year, because a strong summer took them to 115 schools (2022: 86). Personally I think the 100 school threshold is significant - at that point you've proven that a significant number of schools want what you're offering, and you have an established customer base giving you feedback that helps you to improve your product. Ed:gen also have a notable foothold with secondaries (which is a harder segment to serve than primaries), meaning they're well-placed for further expansion across the board.</li><li><b>Juniper had a tough year, but it's not all bad news</b>. Juniper's two MIS (Horizons and PupilAsset, which I group together for the purposes of analysis) dropped from 503 to 429 schools. That gives them a higher churn rate than any of the established vendors (15.5%). Obviously that's not the trajectory you want to see as a challenger MIS, though there is some mitigation in the fact that most of the losses link to three largish MAT contracts (Broad Horizons, Diocese of Norwich, White Horse Federation). Set those aside and there were just 12 losses alongside 4 wins. So while Juniper are presumably facing tough competition for their largest MAT contracts, smaller MATs and standalone schools may still be happy enough to hang around. Now clearly that's not nearly as good as demonstrating a growth in the customer base, but it does leave hope that there's a foundation from which to grow if they can improve their go-to-market strategy.</li><li><b>Compass are up to 7 schools</b>. A year ago, Compass (the Australian HQ-ed MIS) notched their first English school. Since then they've added 6, taking them to 7. So there's some way to go to follow Ed:gen into the 100+ club, but then again, it took Arbor 5 years and Bromcom 7 years to get to that mark. Building a MIS business is a long-term game. </li><li><b>The Key are starting to consolidate onto one platform</b>. 183 schools left ScholarPack and Integris over the past year, but only 30 of those moved to a competitor; the rest stayed within The Key (mostly moving to Arbor, naturally). I've been keeping an eye out for this kind of managed move since ScholarPack was acquired in 2018, but until this year there was little sign of any formal corporate initiative to consolidate the customer base. I think the caution was wise - you don't want to rush customers to change their MIS until you're confident you can keep them happy during the process - and even now, it doesn't feel like schools are being pushed <i>particularly</i> hard into switching. So taken together with Arbor's low churn (0.4% over the past year), there are signs that The Key will be able to hold on to most of their schools during a possible product rationalisation process.</li><li><b>Advanced are... still here?</b> 51 schools are still using Advanced products, despite their MIS <a href="https://www.whichmis.com/advanced-learnings-cloud-school-mis-finally-reaches-end-of-life/" target="_blank">going end of life</a> in August 2023! 109 did leave them this year though, and interestingly, Ed:gen snagged a healthy 23 of those (Arbor: 46; Bromcom: 30). I guess what this shows you is that while it's hard to win schools, it can also be hard to lose them! No wonder people are fighting hard to enter the market. On which note...</li><li><b>There's no sign yet of other challengers breaking into the market</b>. <a href="https://www.teamsatchel.com/products/mis.html" target="_blank">Satchel</a>, <a href="https://www.et-aims.com/" target="_blank">ET-Aims</a> and <a href="https://www.go4schools.com/MIS" target="_blank">Go4Schools</a> have all announced their intentions to sell MIS to English state schools, but they're not showing up in this dataset yet. That's not to say they don't have schools in other markets, or customers piloting modules short of a full MIS, but they're not yet fully fledged MIS vendors.</li></ol></div><div><br /></div><p></p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-21682132090134912582023-11-03T11:27:00.006-07:002023-11-03T13:24:51.363-07:00 How to think about Oak<p><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOFGGoYO-WNv2zfq3_wmjRRAGg8o8RrkWHqPQ-eoMLxmMGE0JCDAFSba6y5CFmH49uRsUogEoGcK9XrxFDjwBK8LsRQQVrDPtezMgsalnpv93aL7YmtiP2FHuDaJh8vYWk0-OtT5E-KTqXI4qNGqvnL63fUp2YQ-vYh9yINmlcKIXH5iffIWGNFiMfFHA/s1200/75b748c0-0223-476b-add9-ea97cc8b719a.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOFGGoYO-WNv2zfq3_wmjRRAGg8o8RrkWHqPQ-eoMLxmMGE0JCDAFSba6y5CFmH49uRsUogEoGcK9XrxFDjwBK8LsRQQVrDPtezMgsalnpv93aL7YmtiP2FHuDaJh8vYWk0-OtT5E-KTqXI4qNGqvnL63fUp2YQ-vYh9yINmlcKIXH5iffIWGNFiMfFHA/s320/75b748c0-0223-476b-add9-ea97cc8b719a.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><span><div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></div></span>
I’ve been struggling to work out how to think about <a href="https://www.thenational.academy/" target="_blank">Oak</a>. It’s an initiative that has sparked a lot of debate, and so much has changed since the plucky beginnings that a new framing feels necessary. Indeed, there are people who believe ideologically that Oak should not exist. I am not one of them, for reasons I’ll outline below, but I do think the debate is legitimate, and the nay-sayers have made some fair points that shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand. <div><br /></div><div>So here’s how I suggest we should now be thinking about Oak: </div><div><br /></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Forget about the acorn.</b> Oak is no longer the organisation it was in its first year. When Oak was first dreamt up, it was a <a href="https://inews.co.uk/opinion/oak-national-academy-online-school-home-learning-virtual-lessons-students-explained-421157" target="_blank">hastily pulled together Covid response</a> with a charmingly Challenge Anneka feel to it. Its first iteration was put together with £500,000 of startup funding. But now it has <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/ministers-set-aside-43m-for-oak-national-academy/" target="_blank">£43m over 3 years</a>, plus a recently announced additional <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-support-for-teachers-powered-by-artificial-intelligence" target="_blank">£2m to develop AI tools</a>, and that just makes it a fundamentally different organisation, albeit with key leaders still in place. To be clear, I don’t think this is a good or bad thing; I just think it’s important to assess what Oak is up to now through a different lens from the original incarnation. So let’s consign “Old Oak” (or surely: Acorn) to history, and turn our attention to “New Oak”. </li><li><b>Oak is neither independent nor free</b>. Oak describes itself as “<a href="https://www.thenational.academy/blog/evolution-of-oak" target="_blank">an independent public body</a>”. This has been a source of irritation to <a href="https://twitter.com/LouisMMCoiffait/status/1569596796074180610" target="_blank">some</a>, who make the point that the Oak’s <a href="https://www.thenational.academy/about-us/board" target="_blank">articles of association</a> describe a sole member, and that member is the Secretary of State for Education. There are some protections and operational realities that I imagine make it feel more independent than other parts of government - the Reach Foundation is still a “Guardian Member”, and the <a href="https://www.thenational.academy/about-us/board" target="_blank">framework agreement</a> does say “DfE shall not prescribe or approve the content of curriculum packages or educational resources” - but that’s not the same as being constitutionally independent. I’m also not sure that “free” is the right lens through which to view them either. Of course it’s correct that teachers can use their resources without paying, but £43m over 3 years equates to around £700 per English state school per year. Now, if the resources are high quality and widely used that may prove to be great value - but it’s not a trivial amount of money. </li><li><b>It’s annoying when you own a business and the government competes with you… but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong.</b> Oak’s existence means that the government is effectively now both a publisher and a provider of education resources and technology. So if you too are a publisher or provider of education technology, that could feel jolly annoying! </li></ul></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">Now, I must declare an interest here, in that I’m co-founder of two edtech businesses that are at the very least adjacent to Oak, and we partner with education publishers who are at least somewhat in competition with Oak. So clearly I am a candidate to be annoyed by Oak. But honestly, I’ve never really objected to their existence philosophically. I guess I see government intervention as conceptually legitimate in a taxpayer-funded sector. That doesn’t mean I usually think that government intervention will be a good use of taxpayer money; but in principle I’m ok with the government being a bit interventionist if they see a reason to do so. The <a href="https://teaching-vacancies.service.gov.uk/" target="_blank">Teaching Vacancies Service</a> is a good case in point: I guess if you’re TES you’d rather the government stayed out of this part of the market, but as a taxpayer I’m fine with the government weighing in here. The way I see it is that it’s down to the sector to innovate and differentiate in response. Instead of being angry at government intervention, I’d prefer to focus on being different and/or better. </div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"> </div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">
That said, Oak doesn’t get a permanent free pass to expand however it wants. Trade associations (most notably BESA and the Publishers’ Association) have been understandably upset at Oak, for example <a href="https://twitter.com/besatweet/status/1661643324283912192" target="_blank">for allowing their content to be made available for free globally</a>. I have some sympathy here too: while technically I can’t quite see how geo-blocking could have worked in practice, it clearly wasn’t the government’s intention to undermine the thriving UK curriculum export market when they decided to back Oak. And yet, that may be exactly what happens once their resources are freely available everywhere. So we should all keep an eye out for overreach, and call it out when it happens. </div></blockquote><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>The above points don’t have much bearing on whether “New Oak” will be good. </b>Now, a lot of the public debate I’ve seen about Oak has dwelt on points 1-3 above. I think they’re interesting, but honestly not that important for how we see the future of Oak. We all come from somewhere, but that doesn’t define our future; Arms Length Bodies (which is what Oak is) can do good things without being independent; and services that disrupt sectors can still be good, even if they annoy incumbents. So I’d prefer to focus on other points when thinking about Oak. On which note… </li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Oak <u>is</u> optional</b>. One common complaint about Oak is that it will become a de facto national curriculum with implicit Ofsted backing, given the organisation’s <a href="https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/oak-national-academy-ofsted-advise-subject-groups" target="_blank">subject advisory role</a>. Oak refute this narrative strongly - they describe themselves as “entirely optional” in their <a href="https://www.thenational.academy/blog/our-strategy-update" target="_blank">3 year strategy document</a>. Still, I don’t think it’s silly to worry about Oak being somehow imposed on schools - and no doubt there will be some who feel pressure to use Oak resources as a “safe” option compared to doing your own thing. </li></ul></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">But our education sector has a rich tapestry of heads, MAT leaders, LA staff and teachers, who all get a say in what a school’s curriculum looks like. I just can’t imagine any world in which this complex, ideologically diverse sector comes to a shared agreement that Oak is the clear gold standard in all subjects. Instead, I see it as a bit like the quest for a “winning” standard in many parts of the technology world - and that usually ends up <a href="https://xkcd.com/927/" target="_blank">this way</a>. </div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"> </div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">
We can even see some evidence for how some will steer clear of Oak from the reaction of United Learning (UL), which has set up its own <a href="https://twitter.com/tes/status/1666163551445172225" target="_blank">paid-for alternative</a>. The UL CEO Jon Coles has been <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/oak-appoints-interim-board-but-largest-trust-pulls-its-lessons/" target="_blank">pretty forthright in his disapproval for New Oak</a>, and I think this shows clearly that MAT CEOs aren’t just going to roll over and accept the imposition of a fully resourced national curriculum. </div></blockquote><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>It’s too early to decide how good New Oak will be</b>. It’s important to remind ourselves that Oak is rewriting everything right now, so basically none of us knows how good their stuff will be across the board. (There are <a href="https://www.thenational.academy/teachers/early-release-units" target="_blank">17 early release units</a> on their website at the time of writing, and <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata/status/1718991468512039255" target="_blank">the early comments I’ve seen</a> about those are positive, but so far it’s a very small sample size.)
I also think it’s a stretch to expect all Oak’s resources to be equally good - their procurement process means that <a href="https://www.thenational.academy/blog/oaks-new-curriculum-partners-and-subject-experts" target="_blank">a wide range of curriculum partners</a> are right now beavering away to produce New Oak’s new materials. I’d be surprised if some of these aren’t seen as good given the number of credible organisations involved; and I’d be equally surprised if there aren’t holes to be picked. </li></ul></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">Another factor here is that public procurement is a somewhat untested way to develop this kind of product. While I’d expect Oak to have careful Quality Assurance processes, it’s just a big undertaking to generate content in this way. So let’s not jump to too many conclusions before we’ve had a chance to see their new stuff. And certainly, let’s not judge them because of whatever preconceptions we might have. </div></blockquote><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>But we do know that Oak’s tech is good (and limited)</b>. One reason I remain optimistic about Oak is that they’ve played a blinder with their tech. The reputation of government-funded technology is, shall we say, not great; and yet from day 1 Oak have made a bunch of really smart decisions that mean they have a fast, intuitive, and (crucially) limited tech product. I would describe Oak as a Lesson Delivery Platform (and I think they’d call it something similar too). It’s certainly not a full Learning Platform - the system doesn’t contain student details, for example - and I see no evidence that they’re likely to change this approach. That leaves space for the education technology sector to do things that Oak aren’t attempting, while Oak ensures that its resources are quick and easy to access. You can even use their code if you want, as <a href="https://twitter.com/johnrobeds/status/1661628080215977984" target="_blank">it’s all available with an MIT open source license</a>. </li></ul></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">My eyebrows were raised somewhat by the government passing them £2m to spend on AI tooling - if the government wants to intervene here, personally I’d have preferred to see a public competition to solicit innovations in the field of AI. One of my ventures, <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" target="_blank">Carousel Learning</a>, got its first £75k of seed funding from a highly competitive COVID-response funding round run by Innovate UK, and we’ve grown to work with over 2,000 schools without any other public support - so you really shouldn’t underestimate what the UK edtech scene can achieve with a bit of government support. That said, my understanding is that alongside their own AI-powered products, Oak is also looking to index and make their curriculum content usable by third party products as a reliable education foundation for AI models. If that’s the case, it has potential to be useful; if they go much beyond that remit, well, I guess that could be a sign of overreach. But we’re not there yet. </div></blockquote><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Oak should be at most a set of foundations; not the whole building</b>. Essentially then, I think New Oak will be a slick but minimal technology stack containing good-but-not-perfect content. No doubt some schools will use their resources extensively; but I imagine more will dip in and out. Oak will be used for cover; for future unexpected periods of remote learning; and as a reference point when developing, refining and filling gaps in a school’s existing curriculum offer. Teachers will still want to produce their own booklets and slides, and they will no doubt remain keen to buy in innovative non-Oak curriculum materials. </li></ul></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">To put it another way, my hope for Oak is that it becomes a minimum baseline for acceptable curriculum quality. Schools and curriculum providers will be free to take different approaches, but content creators will need to be able to explain how their stuff is better than Oak. And honestly, if you’re worried about Oak becoming the sole national curriculum, I think you’re being way too pessimistic about the ingenuity and independent-mindedness of our sector. No government edict is going to make two English teachers tackle An Inspector Calls in the same way. Rather, I think the process of teachers producing high quality stuff will be considerably easier once Oak exists as a reference point. Which leads me on to my last point… </div></blockquote><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Oak had to be free!</b> My biggest concern about Oak was that there would be limitations on the use and reuse of their materials. <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2022/09/free-oak-national.html" target="_blank">I blogged about this last year</a>, and I continue to be firmly of the belief that the only “good” Oak is a free Oak. Curriculum isn’t the kind of thing where you can produce something, publish it and use it forever more without any changes. Every year we evolve our understanding of how to teach, how technology can help with that teaching process, and what knowledge and teaching techniques will lead to the best outcomes in terms of student learning. So to make the most of Oak we need everyone - including edtech vendors and curriculum providers - to be able to reference, reuse and ultimately improve Oak. It would have been awful if we spent £43m creating all this content, and then didn’t allow every part of the sector to play a part in maximising Oak’s potential. It was brave of Oak (and no doubt complicated in terms of licensing arrangements) to agree to an <a href="https://www.thenational.academy/blog/open-innovation-licencing-and-access-to-our-new-resources" target="_blank">open license</a>, and now they’ve done so, we can all think about how we make the most of their existence. It’s also not just a national initiative - I’m not aware of any publicly funded and fully resources open curriculum anywhere else in the world. So if you work in a school or an edtech venture, whether you like it or not you’re now part of this experiment. </li></ul><div><br /></div>I’ll certainly be looking at how Oak’s resources can work with my edtech products, and I’m going to approach the question of partnership positively. The bottom line is that if Oak’s resources are good, and if they can avoid overreach, then I continue to think we’ll end up being grateful as a sector that they exist.</div>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-21508500523292681822023-08-01T10:57:00.002-07:002023-08-01T10:57:54.568-07:00MIS MARKET MOVES SUMMER 2023: fewer than half of primaries are now using SIMS<p>UPDATED DISCLAIMER: <i style="color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">I have past commercial relationships with a number of MIS vendors. I'm also a co-founder of two assessment ventures - <a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Smartgrade</a> and <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Carousel</a> - that exist in markets adjacent to the MIS. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT senior leader trying to get a handle on MIS and edtech. </i><i style="color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">I also now provide MIS market datasets as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.</i></p><p>In autumn 2018, SIMS was the chosen school Management Information System (MIS) for 76% of England's state primaries. At that time, Bromcom and Arbor's <u>combined</u> market share was 2%. In the five years since then, we've witnessed the kind of shift that happens rarely in the often slow-moving world of edtech. The summer 2023 data, which I just got my hands on this week, shows that SIMS's market share is now below 50% of primaries for the first time since I've been tracking the market. What's more, The Key (who now own Arbor, ScholarPack and RM Integris) are up to 40% between those three brands. So it's not even really accurate anymore to describe The Key as a challenger: on current trends, The Key will be the largest supplier of MIS to the primary sector within a year.</p><p>As always, here are some pretty charts summarising the latest data, followed by a few more observations:</p>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1690888740365" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='2305 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2023_05_01MISmarketv1/2305/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2023_05_01MISmarketv1/2305" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2023_05_01MISmarketv1/2305/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1690888740365" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1690888740365" style="position: relative;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Arbor is steadily catching up with SIMS. </b>Arbor is up to 4,240 schools overall, compared to 11,545 for SIMS. Nobody else breaks 2,000. They've now been the fastest grower for at least ten terms in a row.</li><li><b>Bromcom keeps growing too</b>, with 1,851 schools and 11% of the market in the latest data when measured by pupil numbers. They've captured 14% of academies, and they're now up to 4% of LA schools following some <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/bromcom-to-supply-mis-finance-software-for-200-west-sussex-maintained-schools/" target="_blank">notable</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bromcom_edtech-edchat-mis-activity-7034446955720101888-ho7_?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop" target="_blank">procurement</a> successes. Arbor remains the faster grower, with over twice the number of schools on its books, but Bromcom is doing a good job of maintaining a growth trajectory, and stands out as the clear third place vendor. </li><li><b>It was a poor term for the other challengers</b>. I was pleasantly surprised to see <b>IRIS Ed:gen</b> rise from 18 schools to 86 schools during 2022 (incorporating schools still on iSAMS). While they were no doubt helped by SIMS's bummer of a year, that's impressive growth by any standards, and marked them out as a potential breakout candidate in 2023. Well, that hasn't happened yet. In the past two terms, they've added just 4 schools net to be serving 90 schools in total. And things have been even worse for Juniper Horizons, which has 487 school customers (including those still on Pupil Asset), down from 510 at the same time last year. Three terms without growth might be considered something of a warning sign, and I wouldn't be surprised if other MIS are starting to eye up their customer base. In Norfolk, for example, where Juniper have over half of their schools, Horizons/Pupil Asset lost 10 schools in the last year. I'll keep an eye on market share in this LA as it seems like a bellwether for the broader performance of the MIS.</li><li><b>Compass came from Ireland, and now they're doublin'</b>. As I've mentioned in previous posts, until recently I was an advisor to Compass, the Australia HQ-ed MIS who established a strong presence in Ireland in recent years before winning their first English school in late 2022. In the January 2023 dataset they were up to 4 schools (from 1 the previous term), and that number has now doubled to 8. Compass are the first truly new entrant to the market since Pupil Asset, SchoolPod and iSAMS a decade ago, so they're offering us a fascinating real-time case study in whether it's possible for outside players to break through in England. For a first year in a very competitive market, this is a solid start.</li><li><b>Plenty of schools are still switching</b>. When SIMS moved to a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-to-investigate-ess-s-move-to-three-year-contracts-for-schools" target="_blank">"3 year lock-in" strategy</a> in late 2021, their hope will presumably have been that after a brief flurry of switching, schools would stick with them on longer contracts while they got a cloud alternative to their core locally-hosted product to market. Yeah, that's not happened, though. Progress is being made with SIMS Next Gen - <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/primaries-monitor-school-wide-assessments-and-track-progress-against-ks2-targets" target="_blank">some primary assessment features were recently announced</a>, for example, but it's some way away from being a finished all-phase product. In the meantime, 601 schools switched MIS between the Spring and Summer 2023 terms, and fully 474 of those were moving away from SIMS. Or to put it another way, more schools left SIMS <i>last term</i> than switched from any system <i>in any full year</i> between 2010 and 2013. I'd say we're on track for 1,300 to 1,600 switchers during the academic year, the majority of which are leaving SIMS.</li><li><b>Advanced still have 149 schools on their books</b>. Earlier this year Advanced announced that their MIS products were going end of life. So far, only 9 schools have left them this year, meaning that 149 need to find a new MIS home by September 1st. So alongside SIMS leakage, this is another factor keeping the switching market buoyant in 2023.</li><li><b>Finance is now firmly part of the MIS equation</b>. LAs are increasingly procuring a new finance system at the same time as a MIS. Bromcom have been proudly announcing <a href="https://bromcom.com/news/brighton-and-hove-finance?utm_source=owned&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=b%26h" target="_blank">big LA finance wins</a>. The Key have rebranded RM Finance as <a href="https://arbor-education.com/products/arbor-finance/" target="_blank">Arbor Finance</a>. IRIS is growing a state school MIS business off the back of its <a href="https://www.iris.co.uk/products/iris-financials/" target="_blank">popular MAT finance system</a>. So while you clearly <i>can</i> sell a MIS without a finance system, you'll increasingly find yourself in the minority if that's what you're doing.</li></ol><div>One final thought on what it might take for a newer challenger to break through. I don't think it's enough to be "another solid cloud option" anymore - Bromcom and Arbor are too-well established and will be perceived by many as a safer option if there's no clear and compelling differentation. So instead I think you need to focus on breakthrough features to stand out from the crowd. That's hard in MIS world, when you may feel a pressure to have an extensive list of modules just to participate in the market (and that number seems to go up all the time). But I can't see a tonne of other ways to get heard in such a competitive market.</div></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1690888740365'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='540px';vizElement.style.height='717px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-4175939161692567482023-05-07T14:52:00.005-07:002023-05-09T06:00:27.585-07:00MIS MARKET MOVES SPRING 2023: The Key are now in a third of English state schools<p style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><b>Disclaimer</b>: I have past and present commercial relationships with many MIS vendors, including an ongoing role as an advisor for <a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/home" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Compass</a>. I'm also a co-founder of two assessment startups - <a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Smartgrade</a> and <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Carousel</a> - that exist in markets adjacent to the MIS. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT senior leader trying to get a handle on MIS and edtech. </i><i>I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.</i></p><p>I recently got hold of the January 2023 census data. Truthfully, the release at this time of year is never earth-shattering - it tracks schools who move MIS between October and January, and that's just not a super-popular time to switch school systems.</p><p>But there were a few things of interest in the numbers, so I'm cranking out a blogpost regardless. As usual, here are the charts, with my analysis below.</p><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1683494124757" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='2301 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2023_01_01MISmarketv1/2301/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2023_01_01MISmarketv1/2301" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2023_01_01MISmarketv1/2301/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1683494124757'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='540px';vizElement.style.height='717px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
<p><br /></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>SIMS had their worst winter since (my) records began</b>. SIMS lost 242 schools over the period. That may not sound like much, given they lost over a thousand in each of the preceding two terms, but it's more than they've ever lost over that part of the year since I started tracking things over a decade ago (the next highest was last year, when they lost 228 schools). That's significant, in that it indicates that SIMS's <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/competition-watchdog-ends-sims-probe-as-break-clause-confirmed/" target="_blank">move to 3 year contracts (and associated break clause controversy)</a> hasn't stemmed the tide yet.</li><li><b>Arbor had their most dominant term ever</b>. 301 schools switched MIS over the period. 236 of those (76%) moved to Arbor. This may in part be because other vendors don't encourage schools to switch over the Christmas period; but still, it's clear that Arbor remain the leading challenger.</li><li><b>Once the RM Integris acquisition is finalised, The Key will be serving over a third of English state schools</b>. <a href="https://thekeysupport.com/group/the-key-group-welcomes-rm-integris-and-finance" target="_blank">The Key are buying RM Integris</a>, and providing that sale completes following the current <a href="https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/the-key-slash-rm-merger-inquiry" target="_blank">CMA investigation</a> then the group will be providing MIS to 34% of the country's state schools. SIMS are at 55%. So I think we can all officially stop referring to SIMS as the dominant market player - there are now two big fish, and only one of them is growing. To misquote the <a href="https://youtu.be/2wyv52Ahry0" target="_blank">Urban Cookie Collective</a>, they are The Key and they've got the secret.</li><li><b>Compass grew by 300%</b>. In the autumn census Compass had their first school show up. Well, now they're up to 4, giving them a 300% term-on-term growth rate. If they can keep this kind of growth rate up for the next five years then it is a statistical fact that in 2028 they will be working with over a billion schools. (This is the kind of quality analysis I provide to companies who come to me for advisory services.)</li><li><b>Spare a thought for Rufford Primary School, the most recent Advanced adopter</b>. Since this data was captured, Advanced have announced that <a href="http://www.edugeek.net/forums/mis-systems/231823-advanced-learning-geting-rid-cloud-school-august.html" target="_blank">they're shuttering Cloud School this summer</a>. That leaves their 158 schools just two terms to find another home. The news isn't in itself that surprising - the writing was on the wall once their largest customer Academies Enterprise Trust switched to Arbor a year or two ago - but the short timeframes for customers to find a new home is somewhat eyebrow-raising. Which brings me to this blog's "Gah That Sucks" award winners of 2023: Rufford Primary School! Rufford joined Invictus Learning Trust - a MAT-wide Advanced customer - in September 2021, and switched to Advanced last autumn, presumably so that the Trust could have all schools on the same system. So do spare a thought for the poor folks in that school office who trained up on a new system, only to find that they'll have to move to their third MIS in the space of a year by the summer. Ouch.</li></ol><div>To conclude, I'd just say that the next set of data (based on the May 23 school census, which I usually get hold of around August time) will be a biggie. It's traditionally been the period when you see the most SIMS switches in a year, because SIMS contracts used to run until 31st March. So if the move to 3 year contracts is going to help them, we should see that reflected in the May data. In 2021 (before the three year contract drama kicked off), 456 schools left SIMS, so if they can keep their losses below that threshold then I guess that's a win for them? But if they lose say 500+ then it'll be hard to see how all the suboptimal publicity has been worth it.</div><div><br /></div><div><i><b>POSTSCRIPT: I'm hiring for a customer support associate</b> at the moment to work with me at Smartgrade / Carousel. Edtech / customer service experience would be great, though it is not essential - the ideal candidate will be smart and quick to learn and as geekily excited as I am to work in the world of school assessment. Pay is £22-30k. If you think that might be you, or you know someone who could be interested, then <a href="https://workinstartups.com/job-board/job/132001/customer-support-associate-at-carousel-learning/" target="_blank">apply here</a>.</i></div><p></p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-66438283640642801442023-03-23T03:40:00.003-07:002023-03-23T03:51:13.625-07:00Compass: a new direction for UK MIS?<p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I’ve been involved in MIS in one way or another since 2012. Candidly, I’ve spent quite a bit of that time frustrated about the state of the market. In 2014 I wrote a blog entitled </span><a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-structure-of-education-sector-makes.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The structure of the education sector makes data innovation really hard</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, which contained this observation:</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-2bd73270-7fff-ea93-67db-2ab7a5a08ea6"><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 13pt; margin-left: 36pt; margin-top: 10pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The "MIS" market is not structured to foster innovation</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. 83% of schools in England use Capita's desktop-based SIMS product</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> <span id="docs-internal-guid-4f77717f-7fff-c54b-1ac1-4fed18cd48af"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">(this</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><a href="http://www.edugeek.net/forums/mis-systems/76154-something-keep-eye-dfe-6.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline;">helpful Edugeek post</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #666666; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">has the full breakdown). </span></span>Cloud-based systems such as the promising, primary-focused </span><a href="http://www.scholarpack.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Scholarpack</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> are barely 1% of the market. Capita are not exactly hurrying towards the cloud. Maybe this is because they are happy with the way the market is working for them. Maybe I'd feel the same if 17,912 schools were paying me to sell them a legacy product.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Well, SIMS have lost over 30% of their schools since then, and yet they </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">still</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> don’t seem exactly to be rushing to leave those locally hosted roots behind. Their cloud product, SIMS Next Gen, was <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/next-generation-sims" target="_blank">launched in Autumn 2021</a> and yet </span><a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/nextgen" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">the Next Gen marketing site</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> still focuses mostly on “the first slice 'Take Register'”. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So if innovation is not exactly gushing forth from SIMS, where do we look for it? Well, I took on an advisory role at </span><a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/home" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Compass</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, the Australian HQ-ed MIS, two years ago precisely because I was keen to see more new thinking in this space. And now that their first English schools have gone live it seems like a great time to catch up with UK General Manager Pete Collison to find out more about the identity they’re carving out for themselves. Here’s a rundown of our conversation.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">[Josh] Hi Pete. How did you get into the wonderful world of MIS?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">[Pete] I’ve spent 20 years in edtech, mostly with RM and all in school-facing roles. In the past 5 or 6 years I’ve specialised in assessment, and that gave me exposure to RM Integris, the company’s MIS. What really struck me was how big the MIS ecosystem is and how many elements of the school day it touches. Conceptually a MIS covers everything from signing in to school in the morning through to taking registers throughout the day, managing lunch and handling clubs/trips and assessment. That’s a lot, right?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So when the opportunity came to move to Compass - I was excited to get stuck into the sector, and particularly to work with an established vendor that’s new in the UK. It felt like the perfect mix of a startup’s agility but with an established company behind it.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">OK, so tell me about that ‘established company’. What’s the Compass story?</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Well it’s a bit of a Silicon Valley-style story. The company is still run by the founders, John and Lucas, who met over lunch whilst working for AXA Australia, and bonded over their shared passion for Edtech. Compass 0.1 was essentially borne out of them looking to automate some of the more simplistic processes of schools. The first few months of Compass’s life was spent in Lucas’s parents’ garage, whiteboarding the school processes they wanted to automate! We’ve grown rapidly to serve over 2,000 schools in Australia and Ireland since then, but the company still feels quite startuppy in its culture. It’s founder-run, purpose driven, and fast-moving. And we are proud that Compass school number 1, Balwyn High School in Melbourne, is still a key customer to this very day!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The nice thing about how we’re approaching the UK is that while we benefit from Compass’s global credibility and broad range of pre-existing features, we also have a very substantial team here with its own identity, so all school interactions are handled from the UK. We’re very hands-on - </span><span face="Roboto, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">we collaborate closely with schools and make frequent onsite visits to ensure that we understand their needs</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. We’re always on site when schools go live, so it’s a high touch and human service. I think this is one thing that really sets us apart: we make time for every school and they get a lot of time from us before, during and after migration to make sure it goes as smoothly as possible.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Right, so tell me more about the Compass strategy in the UK</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The great thing about Compass is that we’re a fully-featured MIS, with a really broad range of modules, so we can be a one stop shop if schools want; but equally we integrate with other systems and we’re very happy to give schools complete flexibility to use other software alongside us if they so wish. In other words, we are very mindful that Compass is part of a school ecosystem, and we know that it’s for a school to decide how we fit into that.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I believe choice is good. It improves innovation and ultimately that leads to better outcomes. I’d love schools to choose Compass, but regardless, by increasing choice we know we’re doing a good thing.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Importantly, we also feel there’s a space for a vendor who is genuinely purpose-led. Compass is a for-purpose company, not a for-profit company. That dictates our behaviour and how we support our customers.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">You mentioned there that you’re fully featured - tell me a couple of areas where you really stand out from the competition.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Right, so let’s take one universal part of the system, and one quite advanced area. Starting with the universal, we’re really proud of how School Census works. Because Australia doesn’t really have an equivalent concept, we basically got to design this bit of the software for the UK from the ground up. When you look at it you see straight away that everything you need to do is visible in one set of windows. We’ve also set up the flow so that only relevant students are displayed. Everything is also easy to export to spreadsheets for checking. It’s been so well-received that we’ve even just had some schools import data before they go fully live so they can run census through us. That makes us proud of the approach we’re taking. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="border: none; display: inline-block; height: 225px; overflow: hidden; width: 624px;"><img height="225" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/WlpXNfydZqWL-fdOgH5y6fGq9NFtZPRFFPD0lpQcPiAQq6uRgxYHJ6Lz9eTRL3fENLbHXqEqMJrtj2PRPtmWQSM1JdNLch3JXhymajGywH5MBCAmvb1be_aPvOk-pEilCSTgzFYDKyBC3EiQawTxrzA" style="margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px;" width="624" /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">School Census in Compass</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Then perhaps the most advanced part of the Compass offer is timetabling, which we offer through our Griddle module. You don’t have to use it if you adopt Compass, so It’s a great example of how we can be a one stop shop or part of a modular ecosystem in a school or MAT.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">But if you do take on Griddle, the first thing you’ll discover is that it’s designed to cater for the best interests of both students and staff - for example there’s the ability for pupils to choose their options online, and that feeds straight into Griddle. Schools can create rules about which groups of subjects students can choose from, or define a range of pathways, such as academic and vocational. In terms of the Timetable itself, specific staff can be assigned to classes, or groups of staff can be used - such as “KS3 English teachers”. The Timetable Engine will then optimise the scheduling of the timetable, taking into account all of the requirements for staffing and also the distribution of classes and teacher load. It’s incredibly powerful and is a real step forward from what we’ve seen schools using to date.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="border: none; display: inline-block; height: 403px; overflow: hidden; width: 624px;"><img height="403" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/ldE7EU_WSKfRV23F9tp3SXnPTyYcrJIIv9wbafkfi3r7AxleUlLh3Cb-wN93r8CGFnZ0oI0lerzYNdkpTdcncooyGcTGMZVu_HZTCbQ2OHfY3GpQHNDVmK_4rclZLj_rjnldKs4_pzwgxr-h7xbmfKY" style="margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px;" width="624" /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Students selecting their options and preferences in Griddle</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Oh and actually let me throw in one more thing. A nice part of the Compass package is something called Kiosk which is totally unique. It’s a physical terminal which sits by the school's reception and handles things like sign-in and sign-out, both for visitors and students, who can use Compass-issued access cards for this purpose. If a school chooses, their registers can be fully automated based upon student and staff tap-in and tap-out. Kiosk can also handle cashless catering using those same cards. We think this combination is a first for a UK MIS. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Besides features, what’s something special about the Compass software?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A common thing we constantly hear from our schools who switch over is the user experience for staff and parents. We know schools are time-poor and their staff have a vast disparity of technical experience and confidence. Yet, School software can often be outdated compared to corporate technology or more modern apps such as social media platforms. It makes no sense! At Compass, we are constantly thinking about the end user. We have a modern UX design, simple navigation and colour coding to make Compass easy to learn for new users. We have a dedicated team of UX designers working day and night to make Compass intuitive, which is heavily led by customer feedback. That’s our specialty, I think, making complex tasks as simple as possible, with information easy to find and accessible to the whole school community.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Nice! So where are you now in terms of the UK schools market? How many schools do you have, how big is the team, and so on?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Well, we’ve had a good first year, with over 25 schools already signed up. As you know one of those went live in the autumn, and we were up to five by January. The rest will go live over the coming months. The key thing to say is that we don't rush schools, but we are able to accommodate their needs if they need to move quickly. We let them go live at their own pace.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The team consists of over 200 employees from all around the world, with a large proportion of them dedicated to the UK market. Currently, 15 of these employees are based in the UK, and the team is continuing to expand rapidly.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In that case, I should probably ask you what you have to say to people considering a job with Compass?</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">We’re growing and we’re well-funded. Being a global organisation also brings opportunities - we’re very supportive of our UK team spending time in Australia and Ireland, for example. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">As for the type of people we hire, when interviewing, the first thing we look for is cultural fit. That cuts both ways - we need to make sure we hire people who are going to get what they need to be successful. We also offer plenty of geographical flexibility as we fully embrace hybrid and remote working for all roles. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What I’d also like to make clear is that as a fast growing organisation, our senior leaders of the future are joining us now. So I guess it’s not quite a chance to get in on the ground floor, but we’re not much past the mezzanine!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Find out more about Compass and </span><a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/company/contact" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">contact them via their website</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div></span>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-91839970580335648722022-12-21T10:14:00.001-08:002022-12-21T14:08:30.953-08:00MIS MARKET MOVES WINTER 2022: What Did The SIMS Spreadsheet Say?<p style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><b>Disclaimer</b>: I have past and present commercial relationships with many MIS vendors, including an ongoing involvement with <a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/home" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Compass</a>. I'm also a co-founder of two assessment startups - <a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Smartgrade</a> and <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Carousel</a> - that exist in markets adjacent to the MIS. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT senior leader trying to get a handle on MIS and edtech. </i><i>I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.</i></p><p>As a startup founder, here's the rough model I use for how to build a successful business:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Build an innovative minimum viable product.</li><li>Listen to your customers and their suggestions for how to make your good idea into a truly great product.</li><li>Market your company in a way that is warm and appealing to your customers and partners.</li><li>Find the optimal price that allows you to become profitable while also offering great value to your customers.</li></ol><div>But it's not the only way! In fact it's not even necessarily the *right* way to run a well-established business, at least from a "maximising shareholder value" perspective. So established companies sometimes adopt very different strategies from startups. Those methodologies may look a bit weird and unfriendly from the outside, but that doesn't mean they're <i>wrong </i>in terms of profit maximisation. For example, <a href="https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6298729/118-118-owners-ring-64m-dividend-despite-tenth-consecutive-fall-turnover.html" target="_blank">the owners of 118118 had declining turnover every year in the decade to 2018; but still made a £2.4m profit and withdrew a £64m dividend that year</a>. So sometimes the best way to run a company (from the perspective of shareholders) is to find ways to limit the decline and maximise revenue from the customers that remain. That may not look cuddly to customers, but it might work out just fine financially.</div><div><br /></div><div>So there was a world where I could be writing this blog and reporting on SIMS declines after a year of <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/sims-introduce-6-month-break-clause-after-contract-backlash/" target="_blank">contract tussles</a> and <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/competition-watchdog-consults-schools-on-sims-break-clause/" target="_blank">CMA investigations</a>, and the headline could still be "SIMS will probably be happy with that". My guess is that SIMS has a spreadsheet that was crafted sometime in 2021, and that spreadsheet predicts declines in their market share, while also setting a range for those declines which would be considered acceptable. So to evaluate the past year for SIMS, what we're really trying to do is guess what level of churn they could live with.</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, I imagine it was lower than this:</div><div> </div>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2022_10EnglishStateSchoolsMISMarketchurn/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2022_10EnglishStateSchoolsMISMarketchurn/Dashboard1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2022_10EnglishStateSchoolsMISMarketchurn/Dashboard1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /></object></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;">To summarise, <b>over the past year</b> <b>SIMS lost 18% of their market share</b>. 2,734 English state schools took a look at what SIMS was offering and decided to move elsewhere. To put that in context, almost 3 times as many schools left SIMS over the past year compared to the previous 12 months (2022: 2,734; 2021: 942). </div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;">The above chart also shows the churn rates for the leading challengers. Both Arbor and Bromcom have churned at under 3% for the past 4 years now, and Arbor has been at under 1% for the past 3 years. </div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;">So does this mean SIMS are toast? Well, not necessarily. If you're SIMS you're really hoping that the three year contracts you've enforced mean that at least the the exodus stops now. You're also keeping your fingers crossed that customers will like your new "Next Gen" product once they see it. And you're no doubt cooking up other strategies to keep customers with you.</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;">So in some senses the MIS market data for the next year tells an even more important than this batch of data from the past year. 2022 was about seeing how big the decline was; but we've known for some time that a decline was inevitable. The big question now is: can SIMS stop the bleeding and return to a relatively stable market share? Come back next Christmas to find out!</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;">Anyway, SIMS aren't the only story in town, so let's move on to the full market picture. Here are my usual charts showing the latest MIS market share of English state schools.</div>
<div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1671636765488' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='22.10 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2022_10MISmarketv1/22_10/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='2022_10MISmarketv1/22_10' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2022_10MISmarketv1/22_10/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='language' value='en-GB' /><param name='filter' value='publish=yes' /></object></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1671636765488'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='530px';vizElement.style.height='717px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
And here are my key takeaways:</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>RM gave me a new story to tell! </b><a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2022/07/mis-market-moves-summer-2022-sims-lose.html" target="_blank">Last time out</a> I joked that the RM story always seems to be the same: "they didn't lose that many schools, but they didn't really win anything either". Well, they sure did call my bluff, because while their market share is almost unchanged, they recently dropped the bombshell that <a href="https://www.rm.com/news/2022/rm-plc-announces-sale-of-school-management-information-system-business-to-the-key-group" target="_blank">Integris is being acquired by The Key</a>. So in other words, RM somehow managed to both trot out exactly the same story <u>and</u> change the narrative at the same time. It's a bit like when Eminem covered that Dido song and the chorus was the same but suddenly there's a thrilling new meaning to everything.</li><li><b>Ian Armitage take a bow</b>. The most important person you might never have heard of in MIS-land is <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/ian-armitage-19b35366?originalSubdomain=uk" target="_blank">Ian Armitage</a>, shareholder and Chairman at The Key. Having first bought ScholarPack in 2018, and then Arbor in 2020, The Key has now announced its intention to acquire the division of RM that includes Integris. Once the deal goes through The Key will have 7,189 schools in their portfolio - a 33% market share. Looking at academies specifically, The Key have a 38% market share vs 45% for SIMS. To build a portfolio like this takes a really long-term investor horizon and some smart manoeuvring. So hats off to Ian and all those who made this happen. Of course, what they do with Integris post-acquisition is another question altogether: will they move the schools to the Arbor platform, or keep them on Integris over the long term as they've (mostly) done with ScholarPack? That's another one I'll look forward to digging into next year.</li><li><b>Arbor are the winningest MIS</b>. It feels a bit mean of me to bury the lede that Arbor climbed to a 16% market share after gaining 1,887 schools over the past year, but hey, there's been a lot of other stuff to talk about! Anyway, that's over double their share from a year ago. Their position as the leading challenger to SIMS is cemented. </li><li><b>Bromcom also had a strong year</b>. Let's not lose sight of the fact that Bromcom had a banner year too. They also nearly doubled their number of schools (2022: 1,688 schools; 2021: 885), and their market share measured by pupils is up to 10%. Of the other vendors, only Arbor and SIMS are in double figures. </li><li><b>Ed:Gen were the next fastest grower</b>. IRIS products (Ed:Gen and iSAMS combined) jumped from 18 to 86 schools over the past 12 months a net gain of 68. This compares with a net increase of 36 for Juniper products (Pupil Asset and Horizons combined). So technically that makes them the fastest growing MIS (though I appreciate that's a bit like saying "standup paddleboarding is the fastest growing sport in the country"; it may be true in percentage terms, but that doesn't mean it's replacing football in the national pscyche just yet...) But in all seriousness, that's significant growth, and IRIS are entitled to give themselves a pat on the back. </li><li><b>Oh, hello, Compass!</b> If you read the disclaimer at the top you'll know I'm an advisor to Compass, so I take particular pleasure in welcoming a major new player to the English school market! <a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/home" target="_blank">Compass</a> is an Australian company with 2,000+ schools in Australia, Ireland and now England too, serving all phases and types of school. Now they're on the board, it'll be fun to track how they grow in the coming year.</li><li><b>If you're buying SIMS, expect to receive a very personalised sales service</b>. Over the past year SIMS won 23 schools. I checked on LinkedIn and found 26 people with the words "Sales" or "Business Development" in the job title at ESS. Now of course some of them may have left and not updated LinkedIn, and I'm sure others work across customer success / operations / international markets etc... but still, if you're a new SIMS customer you can assume you'll have a very attentive salesperson looking after you. </li><li><b>The switch from ScholarPack to Arbor has started</b>. One thing I've been keeping tabs on is whether The Key move schools from ScholarPack to Arbor now they own both. The answer until now has mostly been no, but this past year there are signs that a switch has started. In total 43 schools left ScholarPack, of which 34 went to Arbor. </li><li><b>Others are coming</b>. <a href="https://www.teamsatchel.com/products/mis.html" target="_blank">Satchel</a> recently announced that they're building an MIS. <a href="https://www.et-aims.com/" target="_blank">ET-AIMS</a> and <a href="https://www.go4schools.com/MIS">Go4Schools</a> are either in the MIS market or looking to enter (I assume ET-AIMS has some independent schools; I'm not sure if anyone is live with Go4Schools yet). So it's fair to say that we can expect further new entrants over the coming years. </li></ol></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1671579195314" style="position: relative;"><br /></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1671579195314'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='520px';vizElement.style.height='627px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='520px';vizElement.style.height='627px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='727px';} var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-30689855628066821792022-09-15T12:33:00.005-07:002022-09-15T23:56:29.646-07:00Free Oak National!<p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">To date I’ve been broadly pro-<a href="https://www.thenational.academy/" target="_blank">Oak</a>. But I can see why some people don’t feel that way, and I sympathise. </span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-d02efd9f-7fff-c5d2-38ad-6abc1dfd4219"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The case against it - particularly in its new life as an Arm’s Length body of the Department for Education - is easy enough to understand. People worry about scope creep. The expanded Oak could undermine the businesses of existing publishers; so if I was in that segment I guess I might have concerns too. I also think it’s reasonable for people to worry that, while Oak says </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">now</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> it will be independent and optional, its mere existence and close relationship with government means that these freedoms may not always be guaranteed.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">But in the most general sense, I remain a fan. I think additional help for teachers in planning and offering lessons is A Good Thing. I also don’t object philosophically to the government inserting themselves into a commercial market. As an edtech vendor (I’m a co-founder of </span><a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Smartgrade</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Carousel</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">), I do not expect or want all educational products and services to be provided by the private sector only. It is good and healthy that commercial outfits compete with non-profits, MATs, schools and, in some circumstances, government directly. Indeed, when it comes to curriculum resources specifically, plenty of the innovation of the past few years has emanated from excellent non-commercial organisations like </span><a href="https://whiterosemaths.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">White Rose Maths</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, </span><a href="https://nrich.maths.org/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">NRICH</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, </span><a href="https://www.primaryknowledgecurriculum.org/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Primary Knowledge Curriculum</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, </span><a href="https://www.arkcurriculumplus.org.uk/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ark Curriculum Plus</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><a href="https://www.unity-curriculum.co.uk/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">CUSP</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So what I’m basically saying is that a debate about Oak is healthy. To get the best Oak possible we need to put aside dogma and engage with how to make Oak work well for everyone. And by everyone I mean schools, teachers, students, parents, curriculum providers and edtech vendors.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And in terms of that final constituency, I’m increasingly concerned that a huge opportunity will be missed in how Oak is proposing to operate. I’ve just read through the </span><a href="https://support.thenational.academy/hubfs/Public/ONA-Prior-Information-Notice-Pre-Read-Sept2022.pdf" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Oak Market Engagement</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> slides and what they say is this:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 36pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Full Curriculum Packages will be shared on a Creative Commons licence (excluding third party copyrighted content within a lesson, such as works of art or literature).</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 36pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Any existing curriculum and/or resources owned by the Supplier (Supplier IP) that is used in the development of the Full Curriculum Packages for the purposes of the Contract remain the property of the Supplier. The Supplier retains the right to commercial and other usage of those existing resources.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The use of Creative Commons is welcome - it means that teachers can download, remix and share resources without fear of breaching copyright. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">But what’s missing is that as things stand, </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">the license seemingly does not allow for commercial use by third parties </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">other than the organisation that created the content in the first place.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Why is that an issue? Well, an important thing to understand about edtech is that vendors selling educational resources have to do two things: create great resources and build high quality technology. They’re both really hard and very difficult tasks! So what happens in practice is that either:</span></p><br /><ul style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Vendors have a vision for innovative technology, and so either outsource content creation to users, or design mediocre content.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Vendors have a vision for great content, but they’re not natural technologists, so their tech platforms are often a bit ropey.</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Now, one quite surprising thing about Oak, given the speed at which it came about, is that it did a really good job of building nice tech as well as creating lessons. But, I think even they would acknowledge that a reason for this is that they kept their tech ambitions limited: they’re a lesson delivery platform, not a full learning platform. So they host videos and pdfs and basic quizzes and such, and they let users access those things very rapidly. However, they’ve been careful not to allow their technology brief to get too broad, and I’m not sure we should want or expect them to do more than make great resources easily accessible online.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">We already know that one supplier isn’t going to win the right to create all Oak content - they have announced a cap of four lots in every procurement cycle explicitly to prevent this. So I worry that we could end up with free Oak resources on the simple-but-very-usable Oak site, and then bits and bobs of commercial reuse from the content creators only in their own closed ecosystems.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Instead, what I’d love to see is that Oak resources become available to all, including any edtech vendor, so that innovators can use this valuable content in their products. If that happens I would expect that vendors would:</span></p><br /><ul style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Enhance Oak’s assessment capabilities.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Right now Oak contains simple multiple choice quizzes. That’s fine as a starter, but it’s only a small part of the school assessment picture. Innovators would be able to make Oak’s quizzes available in other formats (e.g. free text quizzes); write new (and quite possibly better) questions; and innovate with other assessment approaches (e.g. retrieval practice or end of year assessments). Oak can’t possibly do all that, but the sector can, and teaching would be better for it.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Embed Oak lesson content in their learning platforms</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, allowing that content to be integrated into the software </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">that schools are already using</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. That’s surely what customers want, and Oak should make it possible.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Apply new technologies such as AI</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (don’t laugh, </span><a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2021/02/in-edtech-ai-is-only-answer-if-you-know.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I’m sceptical about lots of AI too</span></a><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">) to the content. I think there’s great potential here in terms of content and assessment sequencing. For example, I was intrigued by the recent Microsoft/Eedi blog on using AI for </span><a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/ai/eedi-online-math-quiz/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">next best question models</span></a><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Allow teachers to remix and share Oak content</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. Lesson content doesn’t want to be static. Great teachers take existing resources and adapt them for their particular contents and pedagogies. The right technology would help inspired teachers share enhanced resources with their peers.</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And honestly, I’m not sure I even understand the reason why the government </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">wouldn’t</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> do this. (I can imagine reasons some </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">suppliers</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> wouldn’t want this, but if that’s the case then they’re best placed to explain why, and I’ll look forward to hearing their views!) The DfE will pay out £8m to curriculum providers in the first round of procurement alone. They get to set the rules of the tender process. Surely they should want content provided in a way that allows for the maximum impact? They’re paying for it with all of our taxes; so why put limits on how the IP will be used?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">More broadly, Oak </span><a href="https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/oak-lawyers-say-there-are-grounds-legal-challenge-over-quango#" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">hasn’t always had an easy time engaging with education suppliers</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. I’m sure some people will always be against them, but here they have an opportunity not just to win over a chunk of the sector, but more importantly to harness the amazing UK edtech sector’s ingenuity and ambition. Just imagine what companies like Twinkl, Sparx, Century, Google, Microsoft, Firefly, Quizlet - and of course let’s not forget Carousel and Smartgrade! - could do if they were at liberty to incorporate Oak resources into their offer however they wished. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If we leave Oak content locked behind a non-commercial Creative Commons library the edtech sector will never get to interact with it, and it’s content will be much the poorer for it. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Free Oak National!</span></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div></span>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-36427064648962364632022-07-26T15:13:00.009-07:002022-07-26T15:22:19.418-07:00MIS MARKET MOVES SUMMER 2022: SIMS lose 1,471 schools in a term<p><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Disclaimer</b>: I have past and present commercial relationships with many MIS vendors, including an ongoing involvement with <a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/home" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Compass</a>, an Australia-based MIS that is launching in the UK. I'm also a co-founder of two assessment startups - <a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Smartgrade</a> and <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Carousel</a> - that exist in markets adjacent to the MIS. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT senior leader trying to get a handle on MIS and edtech. </i><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.</i></p><p>After buying SIMS in the summer of 2021, <a href="https://www.insidermedia.com/news/midlands/parentpay-completes-software-firm-acquisition" target="_blank">new owners ParentPay</a> had some big calls to make. With customers moving to competitors at an increasingly rapid rate, they had to make both technical and commercial decisions: </p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Technically</b>, should they persist with SIMS Primary, the pre-existing cloud initiative, or ditch it and build something new from scratch? </li><li><b>Commercially</b>, how should they present to the market? A charm offensive, perhaps, or discounted pricing to keep schools onside? Or could they find a way to somehow keep schools <i>and</i> raise prices?</li></ol><p></p><p>Well, as we now know, SIMS chose to: </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Shelve SIMS Primary and replace the project with <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/next-generation-sims">SIMS Next Gen</a>. </li><li><a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/schools-told-to-hold-off-on-three-year-mis-contract/">Move all customers on to 3 year contracts</a> by March 2022*.</li><li>Raise prices (in their own words, by offering <a href="https://www.theregister.com/2021/11/16/education_software_solutions/" target="_blank">"the certainty of a fixed cost for the first year and a capped price increase for years two and three"</a>). </li></ul><p></p><p>I don't want to get into the ethics of such an approach in this blog, but I do want to reflect on what you might have hoped for if you were the management team behind such a move? SIMS had lost 6% of its schools over the previous year, and so you'd surely be bracing yourselves for an increase on that. It follows that you'd probably bite someone's hand off for 7% churn in the following year? Maybe you'd even take 10% if you felt what you gained in return was valuable enough? </p><p>Well, we now have data covering English state schools over the crucial period up to May 2022, and we can see that this is what they got:</p><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Story 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2022_05MISChurn/Story1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2022_05MISChurn/Story1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2022_05MISChurn/Story1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;">What you're looking at in the first tab of that viz is SIMS's annualised churn (the number of schools leaving in the past 12 months as a percentage of total customer base a year ago), recalculated each term. And what jumps out is that between January 2022 and May 2022, churn more than doubled (to 13% from 6%). That equates to a loss of 1,471 schools over the term, and 2,024 schools over the past year. The only other major MIS in recent times to churn at that level is Advanced Learning, and they've dropped from around 1,300 schools a decade ago to under 200 schools today. The leading cloud vendors, in contrast, all churn around 1% these days. So I think it's fair to say that 1,471 schools in one term is a lot by any measure!</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;">Anyway, this is not just a story about SIMS, so let's move on from churn and take a look at the overall market data:</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><br /><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658864986998" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Story 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2022_05MISMarketv1/Story1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2022_05MISMarketv1/Story1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2022_05MISMarketv1/Story1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1658864986998'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='540px';vizElement.style.height='727px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><br />As always, these Tableau vizzes are designed to let you explore the data yourself; but here are my reflections having had a proper rummage through: </div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Arbor remain the leading challenger and are now the second largest vendor overall</b>. Arbor won 1,033 schools in one term, taking their total to 2,913. That's happened less than two years after they passed 1,000 schools <i>in total</i>. They also won the most schools in each of the following categories: primary, secondary, PRU&Special, Academies and LA schools. The performance with LA schools was particularly eye-catching, acquiring 447 schools over the period (the next most was Bromcom with 65), bolstered by their <a href="https://www.hertsforlearning.co.uk/business-services/data-management-services/multi-supplier-mis-framework" target="_blank">prominent position on the Herts for Learning MIS framework</a>.</li><li><b>Bromcom are also making big strides</b>. In any other term, Bromcom's numbers would have made them the box office performer. They added 367 schools - more than Arbor has won in any previous term, and similar to the number Bromcom won over the previous five terms <i>combined</i>. And this only includes a handful of the schools they expect to join following <a href="https://www.bromcom.com/blogs/wscc" target="_blank">their success with the recent West Sussex tender</a> - so we know there's more to come. It's also notable that Bromcom are now the third largest vendor when the market is measured by pupil numbers, with RM Integris dropping down to fourth.</li><li><b>Other challengers are picking up the pace</b>. <b>IRIS Ed:Gen</b> (a version of iSAMS for state schools) gained 40 schools and <b>Juniper Horizons</b> (a reworked version of Pupil Asset) gained 31. For IRIS the change is particularly noteworthy, since they only started the period with 18 schools.** Both will find reasons to be cheerful in that performance.</li><li><b>ScholarPack aren't going anywhere either</b>. Given that ScholarPack and Arbor now share an owner (The Key), it's reasonable to speculate as to whether ScholarPack schools will be migrated on to the Arbor platform at some point. Well, the data shows us no sign of that happening yet, with ScholarPack gaining a healthy 93 schools during the term and losing just 2. So it looks like the company is committed to dual-running both products for the time being. </li><li><b>SIMS are down to a 60% market share. </b>I know I already banged on about SIMS' churn above, but it's worth taking time to acknowledge their overall performance too. Beneath the 60% headline figure, what stood out to me is that SIMS are down to 50% of all academies (you can see this for yourself by using the checkboxes on the first tab of the viz to select academies only). SIMS dropped below a 50% share of large (30+ school) MATs in autumn 2019; and as I've said before, <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/07/united-learning-have-chosen-arbor-for.html">larger MATs lead the way in terms of how smaller MATs behave</a>. I'll dive into the various different MAT size categories in more detail when I look at annual data based on the Autumn 2022 census.</li><li><b>What to make of RM Integris?</b> I have lost count of how many times I've written a paragraph about Integris that can be summarised as "they didn't lose that many schools, but they didn't really win anything either". If ever there was a term to break that trend, this was it. And you know what...? <i>They didn't lose that many schools, but they didn't really win anything either!</i> 🤷♂️ </li><li><b>Advanced are in serious trouble</b>. As was to be expected after losing the AET contract to Arbor, Advanced dropped from 244 to 186. Their annualised churn is at almost 40%. It's hard to see a way back from here.</li><li><b>Faronics are gone</b>... I married a Canadian, so I was kind of excited when Vancouver-based Faronics came to the UK in 2018. Well, it's time for me to get un-excited because they're now officially out of the English state school game after their lone school migrated to Bromcom. I'm honestly a bit sad aboot it.</li><li><b>... But new names are coming</b>. I was interested to hear SIMS founder Phil Neal big up the <a href="https://www.et-aims.com/" target="_blank"><b>ET-AIMS</b></a> team on <a href="https://finnemoreconsulting.com/ep-035-edtech-thought-leader-qa-phil-neal-on-the-impact-of-recent-mis-market-changes/" target="_blank">a recent fireside chat with Nick Finnemore</a> - so I'd expect to see some schools for them in future updates. And <a href="https://www.compass.education/" target="_blank"><b>Compass</b></a>, the Australian MIS I work with, have a healthy pipeline of schools to onboard in the coming months too. When you put those two alongside IRIS, Juniper, Bromcom and Arbor, it means there are now six legitimate growth cloud options. If I was a school procuring an MIS I'd want to take a quick look at all of them before kicking off a procurement exercise - you've got more choice than ever before!</li></ol><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;">A final thought about SIMS: while this set of data is noteworthy, I'd argue the next 12 months will actually be a better indicator of the product's long term health. I guess 13% churn is bearable if it stops there! But if schools continue to leave in high volumes this autumn, and then more switch away from SIMS in 2023, it'll become increasingly hard for ESS to complete a turnaround. In theory I assume the three year lock-in was designed to prevent further churn beyond Easter 2022, but with <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-to-investigate-ess-s-move-to-three-year-contracts-for-schools" target="_blank">that arrangement under investigation by the CMA</a>, and leading MIS vendors <a href="https://arbor-education.com/blog-arbor-pay-for-one-promise/#:~:text=The%20Pay%2Dfor%2DOne%20Promise,license%20until%20that%20contract%20ends." target="_blank">publicising</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bromcom_introductory-call-bromcom-activity-6949646689251033089-GDAH?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web" target="_blank">policies</a> that only charge schools for a new MIS once their old contract has expired, I don't think we should see it as guaranteed that the SIMS switching will stop anytime soon.</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><br /></div></div><br /><i>* Schools were subsequently offered a <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/sims-introduce-6-month-break-clause-after-contract-backlash/" target="_blank">six month break clause</a>, but the broader strategy has essentially remained unchanged.</i></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><i><br /></i></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1658828577720" style="position: relative;"><i>** Those 18 pre-existing schools were technically on iSAMS, but I group them together for the purposes of this analysis since the products are close relations.</i></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1658828577720'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='540px';vizElement.style.height='687px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><p></p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-39732311051563159862022-07-10T02:04:00.004-07:002022-07-10T02:11:34.610-07:00The latest on SIMS Next Gen<div><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Disclaimer</b>: I have past and present commercial relationships with many MIS vendors, including an ongoing involvement with <a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/home" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Compass</a>, an Australia-based MIS that is launching in the UK. I'm also a co-founder of two assessment startups - <a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Smartgrade</a> and <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Carousel</a> - that exist in markets adjacent to the MIS. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT senior leader trying to get a handle on MIS and edtech. </i><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/home" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.</i></div><p><span color="var(--color-text)" style="font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal);">I'll soon be getting hold of the May MIS census figures from English state schools, and it's a big release for SIMS-watchers. Why? Well, in November last year the company announced that</span> <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/schools-told-to-hold-off-on-three-year-mis-contract/" target="_blank">schools would be required to move from their previous annual contracts to mandatory 3 year contracts</a>, and, let's just say <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/400-schools-sign-up-to-take-collective-action-against-sims/" target="_blank">the news wasn't universally well-received by their customers</a>! <span style="font-size: inherit;">SIMS contracts run from 1st April to 31st March, so the immediate effect of this change was that schools had to decide whether to stay and accept the longer contract, or go elsewhere fast. (A couple of months later <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/sims-introduce-6-month-break-clause-after-contract-backlash/">SIMS did offer a six months break clause</a> after what Schools Week describes as a "backlash" from schools, but still, you'd assume that if there will be an increase in switching, we'll see evidence of that in the May data.)</span></p><p><span color="var(--color-text)" style="font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal);">So to help make sense of the imminent data release, I thought I'd investigate how SIMS are presenting their offer almost a year after the acquisition by ParentPay. </span><span color="var(--color-text)" style="font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal);">But before we check out the latest announcements, here's some context. I</span>n September 2021 <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/we-bought-businessnow-what" target="_blank">Mark Brant (Group CEO of ParentPay) set out his highlights from the first 5 weeks of owning SIMS</a>. This included announcing that they were "massively out-investing all our MIS competitors" and that they would "spend more than £40 million to modernise the product portfolio and radically improve the quality and breadth of the services ESS delivers". He also talked about a culture of "less bureaucracy and fast decision making".</p><p>Then In October 2021, <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/next-generation-sims" target="_blank">Brant announced Next Gen SIMS</a>, offering "Cloud-based, continuous improvement from Spring 2022". This was newsworthy for a couple of reasons: </p><ul style="text-align: left;"><ul><li>It sounded like a tacit admission that SIMS Primary, their pre-existing cloud initiative <a href="https://www.capita.com/news/capita-sims-unveils-cloud-mis-primary-schools-reduce-teacher-workload-and-help-improve-pupil" target="_blank">unveiled in January 2018</a>, was being shelved.</li><li>But it also sounded like there was a Big New Plan - "Next Gen will be deployed as pure cloud-based applications and will sit alongside existing SIMS features", says Brant. This appeared to mean that existing SIMS would be available in its current form via a browser, alongside new native-cloud modules. In an approach described as "Evolution, not revolution", the implication was that the user would get all of SIMS in a browser, with the old bits being replaced one by one with new cloud SIMS. The article implied a quick rollout - Brand says "Best of all, these improvements will begin to be delivered for all our SIMS schools at no additional cost, starting in Q1 2022."</li></ul></ul><div><p><span color="var(--color-text)" style="font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal);">So where are SIMS now? Well, this recent <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/the-view-from-sims-next-gen/" target="_blank">sponsored post in Schools Week</a> provides something of a progress report. First,</span> it reiterates the £40m development pledge, and says of Next Gen that the "first slice of technology is Take Register for primary school teachers", which has been piloted in "dozens of schools". Here's the part about new functionality in full: </p></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><i>Cover teachers can now take registers when the regular teacher is absent; users can view notes against attendance marks; and we’re working to ensure users can add and edit new notes, too. Our development teams are also making progress in adapting Take Register to make it suitable for secondary schools. You can find out more about Take Register by clicking here.</i> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"> <span color="var(--color-text)" style="font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal);"> </span></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><i>I’m also very pleased to report that another slice of SIMS Next Gen has recently gone into pilot mode. Teachers need quick and easy access to the contact details for parents and/or guardians of their learners. We’ve been developing our Learner Contacts functionality to do exactly that. Look out for an update on where we are with this in our next piece!</i></p></blockquote><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", "Fira Sans", Ubuntu, Oxygen, "Oxygen Sans", Cantarell, "Droid Sans", "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Lucida Grande", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;" /></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);">I also found <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/take-register-first-slice-of-sims-next-gen" style="font-size: inherit;" target="_blank">this April 2022 article from the SIMS </a>blog useful to understand how the company is coping with the tricky technical challenge of running Next Gen and SIMS 7 side by side. It says:</p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><span style="font-size: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><i><span> </span><span> </span>It takes just five minutes for Take Register’s data to be synchronised back into SIMS.</i></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><br /></p><div>Or, to put it another way: Take Register doesn't update the SIMS database in real time; there's seemingly a process it goes through before committing any changes.</div><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><br /></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);">Then <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/sims-next-gen-end-of-year-report" target="_blank">the latest article on the SIMS website</a> includes further details on planned developments:</p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><br /></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><i>Our next slice, which is currently in pilot, is Pupil Contacts functionality. The ability to use Pupil Contacts on a mobile device has proved popular, due to its accessibility for activities that happen outside the school building. </i></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><i><br /></i></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><i>The team is now focused on moulding enhancements around the insight and feedback that they’ve received from the pilot. In fact, changes have already been made – such as improved search functionality to support more flexible inputs, or ‘fuzzy’ search and design improvements to make it easier to move around the various features. There’s more to do to, such as optimising Pupil Contacts for tablet screens, before we roll out the slice to all Primary Schools. </i></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><i><br /></i></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><i>And we’re delighted to announce plans to take our latest slice, our MAT reporting tool, into pilot later this year. This is powerful technology, which harnesses AI and Machine Learning, to identify areas of concern surrounding attendance.</i></p></blockquote><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--color-text); counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; font-size: inherit; font-weight: var(--artdeco-reset-typography-font-weight-normal); line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"><br /></p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);">My interpretation of all this is:</p><p style="--artdeco-reset-typography_getfontsize: 1.6rem; --artdeco-reset-typography_getlineheight: 1.5; border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; counter-reset: list-1 0 list-2 0 list-3 0 list-4 0 list-5 0 list-6 0 list-7 0 list-8 0 list-9 0; cursor: text; line-height: var(--artdeco-reset-typography_getLineHeight); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline);"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>The pace of SIMS Next Gen is ramping up - we're getting more and more information shared with us, and there are now several areas either in development or being piloted.</li><li>That said, the only thing that will be live at any scale for the new academic year is "Take Register". And even then, that's currently in pilot for primaries only, though a wider rollout is planned for the summer. </li><li>SIMS aren't rushing to release Next Gen screenshots (I can't find any on the blog or elsewhere).</li><li>Users can't yet add and edit new notes via Take Register (which may be linked to the technical complexities of running a local database and a cloud module side by side?). </li><li>The rollout of Next Gen will be a long-term, multi-year thing. After all, SIMS has *lots* of modules, and plenty of them (like behaviour and attendance, say) are not mentioned yet.</li><li>Improving the experience on phones and tablets is a priority - though the expectation is seemingly for such access to be via a browser with responsive design rather than through native apps; otherwise it wouldn't make sense to say "optimising Pupil Contacts for tablet screens". I'm not clear what that means for the future of the <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/products-and-services/sims-teacher-app" target="_blank">SIMS Teacher App</a>.</li><li>MAT Analytics is a new focus area, presumably to improve MAT retention, which has been a particularly challenging area for SIMS in recent years. That's very much my thing, so I'll be watching for further announcements in this area with interest. In particular I'll be looking for specifics on how they plan to bring in AI and ML to attendance analytics. Or to put it another way, what will AI do that a rules-driven report ("show me pupils who have <95% attendance") couldn't? As <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2021/02/in-edtech-ai-is-only-answer-if-you-know.html" target="_blank">I've blogged about before</a>, AI is only the answer in edtech if you have a clear understanding of the question you want it to answer, and why traditional approaches aren't up to the job. Don't get me wrong, SIMS could have great answers to these questions! I just don't know what they are yet, so I'll be excited to find out more...</li></ol><div><div>Will this be enough to stop schools and MATs from switching away from SIMS? Well, I prefer data to speculation, so hang tight for my imminent blog about the May 2022 census data to find out!</div></div>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-50806263178099477942022-03-14T12:09:00.002-07:002022-06-14T08:11:31.905-07:00I'm boycotting BETT, and I suggest you should too<p><i>DISCLAIMER: This blog is written in a very personal capacity. I work as an advisor to a range of companies in the education sector, and this blog is in no way intended to reflect their views. I'm not trying to speak for anyone other than me; I simply encourage anyone taking the time to read this to reflect for yourself on where you stand, and act accordingly.<br /><br />[UPDATE: Quite a lot happened after I wrote this bog. <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata/status/1504157081175265281?s=20&t=3mQPtUBg7szbqXsDGrzKjw" target="_blank">Here's my Twitter thread</a> following Hyve's announcement later that week. And <a href="https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HYVE/proposed-disposal-of-russian-business/15400485" target="_blank">here's the Hyve announcement</a> about the disposal of the Russian business for "a maximum cash consideration of £72 million". I'm not planning to comment further]</i></p><p>If you're in Moscow between April 12th and April 15th you can attend <a href="https://securika-moscow.ru/Home" target="_blank">Securika</a>, which the organisers describe as "the must-attend security industry business event" (according to Google Translate). <a href="https://securika--moscow-ru.translate.goog/Rus/razdely-vystavki?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp">You'll have the chance to check out suppliers of surveillance systems, perimeter fencing and armored complexes</a>. Obviously if you're a journalist you'll need accreditation (<a href="https://securika--moscow-ru.translate.goog/Rus/akkreditaciya-zhurnalistov?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp">this <i>is</i> Russia</a>, now) And don't miss the opportunities for CPD - you can attend <a href="https://securika--moscow-ru.translate.goog/Delovaya-Programma/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp" target="_blank">sessions on the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in security and the application of AI in video surveillance</a>.</p><p>But of course you're not going to Securika. Russia is at war with Ukraine for goodness sake. And anyway, if you read my blogs you probably work in education - why would you want to support the security industry (or any aspect of Russia's heavily sanctioned economy, for that matter) in a a country that is waging a war of conquest and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/russia-protest-war-blank-sign-ve9882053">arresting people for holding up blank signs</a>?</p><p>Well, the problem is, Securika is staged by <a href="https://hyve.group/Home" target="_blank">Hyve Group</a>, the LSE-listed events business who also operate BETT. And Securika is not their only Russian event; Reuters reports that <a href="https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/976501/hyve-bounces-on-acquisition-of-us-virtual-events-organiser-and-russia-rejig-976501.html">27% of their revenue comes from Russia through events in electronics, laboratory equipment, mining and the like</a>. So if you're off to Bett later this month, you're supporting the company behind Securika, whether you like it or not. </p><p>Sure, you might say, but the world is complex and the Russia-Ukraine war is a very recent phenomenon - isn't it harsh to blame Hyve by association? Let's at least hear what they have to say about the situation before we throw them under the bus.</p><p>Well, here's <a href="https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/ite2/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=225&newsid=1554413" target="_blank">an excerpt from their only public proclamation on the "Russia/Ukraine conflict" to date</a>:</p><blockquote>Hyve continues to closely monitor the situation in Russia and Ukraine. At present colleagues in both countries are safe and the Group remains in daily dialogue with its teams to provide support.</blockquote><blockquote>The Group has taken the decision to postpone events in Ukraine, which represent less than 3% of the Group's revenue, until further notice. At present the Group has seen no impact on its events schedule in Russia, but anticipates disruption to Western participation as a result of the ongoing conflict. The Group is currently assessing the potential impact of the latest sanctions by the EU, the UK and the USA. Revenues from the Group's Russian events are contracted in roubles and other currencies, while the costs of organising the events are incurred primarily in roubles, limiting the Group's exposure to the impact of rouble devaluation on profitability. </blockquote><blockquote>[...] </blockquote><blockquote>A further update will be provided in due course as appropriate. </blockquote><p>So no condemnation (it's the "Russia/Ukraine conflict", dontcha know - you wouldn't want to be seen to be taking sides); no acknowledgment of any humanitarian impact other than the safety of their staff; just reassurances about the way the group is able to limit the financial impact of "disruption to Western participation". </p><p>"Why are you telling me all this?", you might ask. <i>You</i> don't endorse Hyve's Russian operations - you just want to meet up with colleagues and customers in the education technology space and stay out of anything political.</p><p>And while I have sympathy with that view, I don't think it meets the moment. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60571133">Companies in all industries are pulling out of Russia</a> because, as Anna MacDonald from Amati Global Investors says in the linked BBC article, "it was just utterly inappropriate to continue to [generate profits from Russia]". And it's not like these events snuck up on Hyve - Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and things have festered or escalated ever since. </p><p>So here's my bottom line: if Hyve want the sector to continue to support BETT, I think we should ask that they should announce the cancellation of all Russian events. If they don't do that, we should not go.</p><p>That's a tough thing to ask of them and I appreciate it's easy for me to say and much harder for them to do. Employees' jobs (and maybe also safety) would be at risk, I assume local authorities would be angry; money will be lost. And the world <i>is</i> complex: I would understand a Hyve employee or shareholder lamenting the hypocrisy of amateur do-gooders like me who criticise them while buy goods and services from other repressive regimes, wittingly or unwittingly. This isn't thrown in as polite window dressing - I absolutely don't think I (or any of us) have unimpeachable moral credentials, and I will approach any further public statement from Hyve with an open mind. My hope is that they do pull out of Russia, and I would give them huge respect and credit if they do so. </p><p>It's also a tough thing to ask of you. Maybe you feel it's not your call to make; perhaps you don't want to get in trouble with your employer; or it could be that you feel you can't afford to lose money and custom by pulling out. These are all big decisions, and I'm not going to judge anyone for the way they make that decision. Honestly, I feel uncomfortable writing such a confrontational blog, and if I knew people at Hyve I'd probably prefer to petition them behind the scenes, at least at first.</p><p>But of course I <i>have</i> written this blog, and I've done so because I can think of no other event in my adult lifetime where the moral imperative to take a side is so clear cut. Global affairs are often complex. Civil wars can seem impenetrable from the outside. Some conflicts have been raging from before we were born. But never have I lived through a totalitarian country trying to extinguish its neighbour's desire to choose a democratic future for itself. It has echoes of the past and lessons for the future that require us to take a stand. If I were old enough, I want to believe I would not have done business with companies that operated in apartheid South Africa. Putin's Russia has earned for itself a place in the world no less deserving of pariah status.</p><p>It's time for Hyve to get out of Russia, and if they don't, I would encourage you to join me in boycotting BETT.</p><p></p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-62686747885879003732022-01-01T08:54:00.007-08:002022-01-02T06:53:14.065-08:00MIS MARKET MOVES WINTER 2021: SIMS is in trouble; Arbor is the biggest beneficiary<p><i style="color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Disclaimer</b>: I have past and present commercial relationships with many MIS vendors, including an ongoing involvement with <a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/home" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Compass</a>, an Australia-based MIS that is launching in the UK. I'm also a co-founder of two assessment startups - <a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/" target="_blank">Smartgrade</a> and <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/" target="_blank">Carousel</a> - that exist in markets adjacent to the MIS. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT senior leader trying to get a handle on MIS and edtech. </i><i style="color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/home" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>. </i></p><p>SIMS is in trouble. </p><p>Following a year in which they were <a href="https://www.educationsoftwaresolutions.co.uk/resources/article/montagu-acquire-ess-business-and-invest-parentpay-group" target="_blank">acquired by Montagu</a> and then <a href="https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmidlands/news/2054239-parentpay-acquisition-creates-uk%E2%80%99s-largest-edtech-business" target="_blank">merged with ParentPay</a>, the kindest thing you can say about SIMS's strategy is that it is, umm, defensive. Here are their two most high profile moves in recent months:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>They've had to change their cloud strategy yet again</b>. SIMS first piloted a cloud version of SIMS in 2014 in Northern Ireland. It didn't go well and the project was pulled. They then <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/introducing-sims-primary" target="_blank">relaunched their second attempt at a cloud product ("SIMS Primary") in 2017</a>. So how's that going? Well, <a href="https://www.ess-sims.co.uk/resources/blog/next-generation-sims" target="_blank">the most recent announcement from SIMS launched something called Next Gen SIMS</a> and it seems to be... not SIMS Primary? According to the release "the components of Next Gen will be deployed as pure cloud-based applications and will sit alongside existing SIMS features, giving users the opportunity to move across at their own pace." I take that to mean that they're releasing planning to release new cloud SIMS modules one by one, and as an alternate way to access and use your existing SIMS database, with a long-term gradual move of the whole product to the cloud. But I may be wrong? Maybe it's a sort-of cloud emulation of existing SIMS that can be iterated into a cloud product? Either way, I also assume that SIMS Primary is no more since it isn't mentioned at all in the announcement.</li><li><b>They're forcing customers onto three year contracts at short notice</b>. To say it's been controversial is an understatement: it's gone down so poorly that <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/400-schools-sign-up-to-take-collective-action-against-sims/">400 of their customers have signed up to collective action to resist the changes</a>!</li></ol><div>So how have SIMS ended up year after what has presumably been a busy year of strategising? Well, as it happens, I have a chart for that:</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj_uanzSkbVMajHQQC7AF2H56vuIcOJr2-IVkV8p6JHxv_-yyQh4eYpXZuMPe7mchzb9hntNWZyYSTrF1Ie3PgYMuq2THKJ_hYrFi9iC8efqVJU8MiklJZ6GrPezfaZD635ghegGQJMs9e_DeoCDsC0fgI03QOg092hNiEyvmjeKkyjL4CTdBsurZWq=s1770" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1216" data-original-width="1770" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj_uanzSkbVMajHQQC7AF2H56vuIcOJr2-IVkV8p6JHxv_-yyQh4eYpXZuMPe7mchzb9hntNWZyYSTrF1Ie3PgYMuq2THKJ_hYrFi9iC8efqVJU8MiklJZ6GrPezfaZD635ghegGQJMs9e_DeoCDsC0fgI03QOg092hNiEyvmjeKkyjL4CTdBsurZWq=w527-h362" width="527" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;">What this shows you is that the percentage of the previous year's English state school customers leaving SIMS (i.e. their "churn") has increased from 0.7% in 2014 to 5.9% in 2021 (941 schools in total). The churn rate accelerated significantly over the past year. My basic rule for the MIS market is that churn of above 5% is a big warning flag. Schools don't move MIS without a good reason to do so - there's quite a lot of change management involved, so the perceived hassle has to be triggered by some kind of justification. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">There's not much reassurance for SIMS in the phase breakdown either:</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj0yfB7Qsg3RFpKWXDhdzoXHkaKPrR8RcXGagoVv3SIZDFHB3ompe0tCfLKZ3G8wk4rtqCgeWFQd-5-WyDRR-Oq2BVkdQikDdYa3L9VMdu_iSFqjcVjDz4wPoaUJOr4WDA7WE-BtMw8Rtd4O6c7mKn1R8SpqotsRqliSmVmvWC1a0B3s1y4aq3Cbv2M=s1780" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1228" data-original-width="1780" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj0yfB7Qsg3RFpKWXDhdzoXHkaKPrR8RcXGagoVv3SIZDFHB3ompe0tCfLKZ3G8wk4rtqCgeWFQd-5-WyDRR-Oq2BVkdQikDdYa3L9VMdu_iSFqjcVjDz4wPoaUJOr4WDA7WE-BtMw8Rtd4O6c7mKn1R8SpqotsRqliSmVmvWC1a0B3s1y4aq3Cbv2M=w543-h376" width="543" /></a></div>The secondary number will be particularly concerning for SIMS. Primary churn has been above 3% for four years now, so SIMS will have become somewhat resigned to leaking schools at this phase, but the migration away from the secondary product is a newer phenomenon. And that's just the historical data - if you're sitting in SIMS HQ, and you extrapolate a trend line for the next 2-3 years from that data, well, I guess that's what leads you to lock up your customers by any means possible while you still have them!<br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">So how does this compare to their rivals? Well, if we overlay the churn rates of the main market players you see that Bromcom, Arbor and ScholarPack all now churn well under 2%.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi6ySlJJRJs1H--afe0ObG4nliT4Rl2GEGV8i8N9uCoSVW2EEVAxC3wa4XSMm9c1uJjtEHmT2_BMNh_lUQ9n3vzi74WLNNMiYc1viotW2c5t6ugHliPxN94KzxZToa5SG_RFSnDvyR7BGxv6UWlkBSIGBC6RJzOTuKeEHwpU76PDnIbYHO7RDOzHBBV=s1684" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1368" data-original-width="1684" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi6ySlJJRJs1H--afe0ObG4nliT4Rl2GEGV8i8N9uCoSVW2EEVAxC3wa4XSMm9c1uJjtEHmT2_BMNh_lUQ9n3vzi74WLNNMiYc1viotW2c5t6ugHliPxN94KzxZToa5SG_RFSnDvyR7BGxv6UWlkBSIGBC6RJzOTuKeEHwpU76PDnIbYHO7RDOzHBBV=w539-h438" width="539" /></a></div></div>It's not good news for all of SIMS's challengers, mind: Pupil Asset (now rebranded as Juniper Horizons) will be disappointed to have lost 6.9% of their customers, having got churn down to just 1.3% the previous year, and RM would have preferred to break what is now a six year streak of 3%+ churn.<br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">So how does that impact the bigger picture of the English state school market? As usual, here are some pretty interactive Tableau charts; below them is my analysis of the main trends.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1640964851512" style="position: relative;"><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2021_10_01MISmarketv1/2021MISmarket" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1640964851512'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='560px';vizElement.style.height='707px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
<div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Arbor won the year</b>. Arbor's market share by # schools grew by 2.8% (from 4.8% to 7.6%). That's by some distance the biggest one-year rise for any company in the twelve years I've been gathering data. And there's more: while they've been the biggest winner on that metric for a few years now, what's new is that they grew by 2.7% measured by number of pupils (from 4.0% to 6.7%). This reflects their relatively recent competitiveness at secondary: in 2021 they won 75 secondaries compared to 66 for Bromcom. In 2020 it was 58-52 in favour of Bromcom and in 2019 it was 57-14 to Bromcom. Arbor also won this year's most hotly contested procurement, when AET chose them to provide a MIS to their 57 schools. (<a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/software-supplier-takes-legal-action-against-second-trust/">Bromcom are contesting this</a>, having also <a href="https://schoolsweek.co.uk/trust-embroiled-in-2m-contract-legal-row-amid-move-to-the-cloud/" target="_blank">raised a similar legal challenge after losing United Learning's tender to Arbor last year</a>. This column isn't the right place to debate the legal merits of either action, but I will say that I worry for Bromcom that any upside gained by legal means will be more than offset by the negative publicity that comes from taking high profile MATs to court. Large MATs are influential; MATs don't like being sued; and MAT leaders talk to each other...).</li><li><b>Bromcom remains Arbor's main rival</b>. All that said, Bromcom had a good year too, posting their biggest annual rise to date. They now have 4.0% of the market by number of schools (2020: 2.9%) and 5.8% of the market by number of pupils (2020: 4.4%). That makes them the clear number two challenger after Arbor right now. They'll also have been pleased to have won the recent <a href="https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?q=london+borough+hackney#766115839-762708473-40">Hackney LA procurement for a MIS and finance system</a> in November 2021. Hackney have been SIMS users, so the decision to move wholesale to another vendor (rather than opt for a framework or just leave it up to schools) is a big deal, and it will be fascinating to track whether other LAs go down this route. The Hackney schools haven't started switching yet, so Bromcom's numbers should see a commensurate boost over the coming year or so as the migrations happen.</li><li><b>ScholarPack is still growing</b>. These days The Key own two MIS: Arbor and ScholarPack. It's therefore legitimate to wonder if they plan to keep both MIS live in perpetuity, or whether they'll start prioritising the Arbor platform, which is all-phase whereas ScholarPack is primary-only. Well, there's no evidence of any change of that nature happening yet. Only 5 schools left ScholarPack to join Arbor over the period, and 191 schools joined ScholarPack, which is the biggest gain since 2018, indicating a continued (and successful) sales effort.</li><li><b>Nobody else is making much of a dent yet</b>. Juniper Horizons (the MIS formerly known as Pupil Asset) gained 46 schools, which initially looks like a good effort and matches their number of wins in 2019 after adding just 9 in 2020. However, they also lost 31 schools, mostly to Arbor, so the net gain ends up being a more modest 15 schools. iSAMS (now marketed by new owners IRIS as Ed:Gen) achieved just 3 new wins alongside 1 loss, leading to a net gain of 2 schools. Faronics' attempt to enter the market seems to be over - they've been stuck at 1 school for 4 years, so I've now lumped them in with the "others" as there doesn't seem much point tracking them in their own right. Now the challenger picture could change in 2022 - I've no doubt that Juniper and IRIS continue to invest heavily in the market, and if you read my disclaimer at the top of the article you'll have noticed that I'm helping Compass, an Australian MIS, to enter the market. So if you're a MIS commissioner, the good news is that you have several promising cloud options to consider alongside the established challengers. This is a competitive sector!</li><li><b>Advanced faces an uncertain future</b>. Advanced's market share is down to 1.2% (from 6.3% a decade ago). Of their 275 remaining schools we know that 57 from AET are already on their way to Arbor, so without a rush of new sales they'll be below 1% pretty soon. And it's hard to believe that many new sales are coming their way in light of the fact that just two new schools joined them over the past year. I'm not sure how you turn that around.</li><li><b>SIMS' market share from schools in large MATs has halved since 2014</b>. In 2014 SIMS had 80% of the schools that are now part of the country's largest (30+ school) MATs. That share is now down to 39%. Large MATs only represent around 5% of the country's schools, but they're influential, as smaller MATs look to them for guidance on how to navigate the market. It's worth noting that Bromcom are the biggest challenger by some distance in this sector, with Ark, Harris, Hamwic, Oasis, David Ross and Leigh Academies Trust all choosing them. That said, AET's move to Arbor isn't yet reflected in the data, so that'll boost Arbor somewhat once those schools do move over.</li><li><b>LAs are becoming mixed economies</b>. My charts above include analysis of the market share in the largest LAs for the first time. I don't see a tonne of difference in the behaviour of larger LAs vs smaller LAs, but I find it's actually more helpful to look up close at a sample of LAs than try and look at their numbers in aggregate, so that's why I've included this analysis. And what you see when you look up close is that SIMS had an 90%+ market share in 14 of those 21 largest LAs in 2014, whereas in 2021 that's true of just 2 of them. I think this is significant - one thing that's propped up SIMS's market share is schools not really understanding that they have a choice. If your LA has a MIS support team and they only work with SIMS, you may be disinclined to look elsewhere, but if the school down the road is using something else, you'll be more open to contemplating alternatives. I also see evidence in the market of MIS support teams changing their business models to support multiple MIS, which reduces the barriers to switching: if you can keep your friendly support team while changing MIS, migration might seem less of a big deal. </li></ol><div>So what will 2022 hold? Well, the big question in the short term will be how many SIMS schools decline the now-mandatory 3-year contract and move elsewhere by March 31st. We'll know that when the May census data is published around July 2022, so keep your eyes peeled for my summer blog on the subject! That said, personally I think that the autumn 2022 data will be even more intriguing (i.e. a year on from this blog), as it will give us a true sense of whether challengers find ways to win SIMS school in spite of the three year lock-up. It'll also be clearer whether other challengers are starting to match Arbor and Bromcom when it comes to competing for schools.</div></div></div></div>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-17931341481972074132021-09-29T09:00:00.002-07:002021-09-29T09:08:03.067-07:00A treasure trove of insight on the English school assessment sector<p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://teachertapp.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/logo-revised.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="101" data-original-width="300" height="101" src="https://teachertapp.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/logo-revised.png" width="300" /></a></span></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">If you’ve read any of my blogs before you’ll know I’m a data geek. However, the first blog I wrote (in 2014) contained no data whatsoever. Rather, it was mostly a grumble about the lack of good quality data in education. </span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-1ad0276a-7fff-7a1c-2070-56b5d53b6a41"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Then I managed to get hold of data on the school Management Information System market, so I started focusing on that in my blogs. This made some MIS-market watchers happy, but friends in other sectors would contact me and say things like “hey, we don’t care about MIS as much as you, so can you do the same thing for our sector?” And sadly, the answer was invariably “no”, because I just didn’t have the data to do justice to the question.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Until now, that is.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Because, for those of you who track English school assessment, the very good news is that I’ve found my dream data partners in the guise of the good people at Education Intelligence (the team behind </span><a href="https://teachertapp.co.uk/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Teacher Tapp</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">). I don’t think this is as widely known as it should be, but they have this super-cool thing called the Education Intelligence Tracker, which keeps tabs on what school staff think about education suppliers. They track *literally* hundreds of companies by asking the following questions to several thousand teachers at a time:</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Have you heard of the following company?</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Do you currently use or have you used the following company in the past 6 months?</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Would you recommend the following company to a colleage?</span></p></li></ol><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And so, joy of joys, my consultancy (Edtech Experts) and Education Intelligence have worked together over the past few months to publish a data-rich insights package focusing on the English school assessment sector. Here’s what we’re offering:</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A dataset</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> of the 57 companies covered by Teacher Tapp with a significant assessment component to their offer. Yes, you read that right, </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">57 companies</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">! The neatly structured dataset includes answers to the questions above at overall level, and also broken down by lots of sub-categories (e.g. primary vs secondary, teacher vs middle leader / senior leader etc). This is the first time that Teacher Tapp have ever made this much of their data available in one purchase, and as a consequence the bundle is brilliant value for money.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A report</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> written by Edtech Experts both analysing Teacher Tapp’s data and also incorporating qualitative insights from interviews with a wide range of sector experts. So as well as the data analysis you get sections on how the assessment market is segmented, the big trends in English school assessment, how schools procure, a market sizing exercise, and even a “deals summary’ covering signification investment and acquisition activity at the focus companies over the past 3 years. </span></p></li></ol><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The package will therefore help you to understand:</span></p><br /><ul style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">How the English school assessment sector is structured and segmented </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Which are the growth areas </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Which assessment products are popular (and which ones are not)</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Strategies investors are using to expand in the assessment space</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">How schools procure assessment products</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If that’s all still a bit abstract, here are a few nuggets that made me raise my eyebrows as we put the report together, and which you’ll be able to explore in much more detail by purchasing the package:</span></p><br /><ul style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The combined market share of Microsoft Teams and Google Classroom in English schools is now over 100%! That means most schools are seemingly using one of the two, and some are using (or experimenting with) both.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Single subject and quizzing products are very popular with teachers; assessment management platforms (including MIS) are not.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Standardised assessment is </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">big</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> business.</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Special thanks go to Ed Tranham of </span><a href="https://www.theassignmentreport.com/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Assignment Report</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, who was hugely helpful in pulling together the deals summary - if you don’t have a subscription, I thoroughly recommend them as a source of news on the business of education.</span></p><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So, if you’d like to know more about our insights package on the English school assessment sector, or get an idea of pricing, drop me an email at </span><a href="mailto:josh@edtechexperts.co.uk" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">josh@edtechexperts.co.uk</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, or DM me on </span><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">LinkedIn</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> or </span><a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Twitter</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></span>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-70835081457319281262021-07-24T16:33:00.003-07:002021-07-25T01:17:35.575-07:00MIS MARKET UPDATE (Summer 2021): SIMS dip below 70% market share<p style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><b>Disclaimer</b>: I have past and present commercial relationships with many MIS vendors, including an ongoing involvement with <a href="https://www.compass.education/uk/home" target="_blank">Compass</a>, an Australia-based MIS that is launching in the UK Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT MIS commissioner trying to get a handle on all things relating to MIS and edtech. </i><i>I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/home" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #2288bb; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>. </i></p><p>No time for small talk this term - I'm going to get straight to the point. I've just got hold of the latest termly data on the School Management Information Systems (MIS) used by state schools in England. Here are the headlines:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>SIMS dipped below 70% market share when measured by number of schools</b>. I now have eleven years of MIS market data. SIMS' market share peaked in 2012 at 84%. This summer they dropped below 70% (69.6% to be exact). It's higher when measured by pupil numbers (74.6%), but still, the direction continues to be downwards however you cut it.</li><li><b>528 schools switched over the past term</b>. That's high by historical standards. We don't have exact data for 2020, because there was no summer census (damn you, COVID, for messing up my beautiful term-by-term dataset), but my educated extrapolation is that the figure for the equivalent period last year was 480-490, and in 2019 the summer term number was 430. That follows a strong number the previous term, which leads me to estimate that there will be c. 1,000-1,050 switchers in the full year to autumn 2021 when we get next term's numbers. That would be a historic high since (my) records began in 2010.</li><li><b>Wins are still dominated by Arbor, Bromcom and ScholarPack</b>. This isn't news, but there are some interesting subplots to the story. On which note...</li><li><b>Arbor and Bromcom are neck and neck with secondary wins</b>. Bromcom remains the dominant challenger with secondaries - they have 299 schools compared to 135 for Arbor. However, Arbor now match them when it comes to new wins. In 2019, Bromcom won four new schools for every school joining Arbor. But over the past term, 29 secondaries joined Arbor, compared to 22 joining Bromcom. Why the change? Well, United Learning had a lot to do with it, accounting for 17 of Arbor's wins. But still, something seems to have changed: over the past four terms, the two have been more or less equally successful with secondaries (Bromcom has 87 wins to Arbor's 84). <br /></li><li><b>MAT schools are still more likely to switch, but LA schools are catching up. </b>Around 45% of English state schools are academies, but academies (most of which are now in MATs) represent 62% of the switchers. That said, LA schools are increasingly getting in on the switching act: in Q1 of 2018 they represented just 14% of switchers, whereas last term 38% of switchers were LA schools.</li><li><b>Pupil Asset (now sold as Juniper Horizons) won more schools than SIMS over the past term</b>. It's been a quiet few years for Pupil Asset, so the Juniper team will be heartened to see 25 schools come their way over the past term. That's not at the level of the "big three" challengers, but it was more than SIMS managed to win over the same period (they had 18 wins). Aside from bragging rights for the non-trivial number of ex-SIMS employees now at Juniper, this also points to how SIMS hasn't (yet) found a way of winning schools away from the challengers. Having said that, new owners Montagu have only just had <a href="https://www.montagu.com/news/cma-approves-the-merger-of-ess-and-parentpay/">their merger with ParentPay confirmed</a>, and so it feels too early to judge the impact of the new owner's strategy on the long-term prospects of the business.</li></ol><div>As always, here are some pretty charts which you can use to explore for yourself:</div><p></p>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1627169415110" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Story 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2021_06MISdatatermly/Story1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2021_06MISdatatermly/Story1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2021_06MISdatatermly/Story1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1627169415110'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='540px';vizElement.style.height='707px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-7435866037302810592021-06-19T09:12:00.006-07:002021-06-19T13:21:04.615-07:00MIS MARKET UPDATE (JAN 2021 DATA): Churn, Baby Churn.<p><i><b>Disclaimer</b>: I have past and present commercial relationships with many MIS vendors, including an ongoing involvement with Compass, an Australia-based MIS that is launching in the UK Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. This matters to me - it's basically the blog I wish had existed back when I was a MAT MIS commissioner trying to get a handle on all things relating to MIS and edtech. </i><i>I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs. If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/home" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>. </i></p><p>I feel sorry for local news organisations. I grew up in the south west of England, and <i>occasionally</i> stuff happened, but more often that not the local news sounded like: </p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><i>Something something council business, bla bla squirrels are hurting trees, yadder yadder oh look a royal came to the County Fair... </i></p></blockquote><p>You get the idea.</p><p>Nonetheless, those dutiful regional news teams still had to put out their obligatory half hour of programming, or an unfoldable broadsheet newspaper, or whatever. They had to pretend that everything that they reported on was a big deal. The temptation to arrive on camera and just fess up to the absolute chasmic absence of news must have been overwhelming. "It's 9pm, thanks for joining us, but honestly you really shouldn't have bothered. Make your dinner and come back when Tomorrow's World will be reporting on a curious new invention called the internet." <i>That's</i> the kind of content I'd have respected. </p><p>I felt a bit like that when I was preparing this blogpost. Don't get me wrong, there's some good stuff below (e.g. more schools are switching!), but at the same time, if you caught my <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/12/mis-market-moves-2020-covid-didnt-stop.html">December 2020 update on the MIS market</a>, you're unlikely to be blown away by the newsiness of it all. Still, you're probably committed to at least a quick skim at this point, so let's get into it.</p><p>I <a href="https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/school_mis_suppliers_as_of_the_m">recently received school MIS market data from January 2021</a>. I've been requesting the termly files for a couple of years now, so I was able to combine it with data stretching back to October 2018 to analyse termly trends. What follows are my five key takeaways, accompanied by some charts, where I think they'll help to emphasise a point.</p><p>So, here we go.</p><p><b>1. SIMS churn is at an all time high; challenger churn is at all all-time low</b></p><p>The most important number for all MIS market participants is churn: that is, losses over the past twelve months divided by the number of schools twelve months ago. For established players, you want this to stay low to protect your position. For challengers, you want it to be high.</p><p>I've blogged before in my annual blogs about how SIMS churn has grown steadily since 2014 when it was under 1%. The term-by-term data shows this trend continuing. The following chart shows annualised churn using a rolling average of the three previous data periods for the five leading MIS. What you see is:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Overall churn has been hovering around 4% for a couple of years, and is showing signs of ticking upwards. </li><li>SIMS churn hit 4.5% in Jan 21, the highest rate over the period (and the highest since at least 2010, when my main annual dataset begins).</li><li>There are two clear groups when it comes to churn: the two largest MIS (SIMS and RM), who both churn around 4-5% with churn ticking slowly upward; and the three main challengers (Arbor, Bromcom and ScholarPack), who have been churning at 0-2.5%, with churn ticking notably downwards, particularly in the most recent data set.</li></ul><div>That last point is particularly key for those trying to understand where the market is heading. In summary, it's good for challengers! They're keeping their schools while seeing an ever-expanding pool of switchers to fight for. In an ideal world, the challengers would of course love overall churn (which for a while will still mostly mean SIMS churn) to tick up closer to, say 10%. But in the meantime, they can probably live with 4-5% of schools being up for grabs every year, particularly if their own customers staying loyal.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC-pbmzWKCqDqS6F0r97zx8FN5oI-M4AmQOSJ5L8QAAZHi053inx5OUvgRBvTMnIggS9dv43460j9kMuW3Xqoo0rSaxuuxecssHCf-hjyS9jikEYkQ-eTkZf0N1JkOaCTxsV1qmzisBhY/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="588" data-original-width="1102" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC-pbmzWKCqDqS6F0r97zx8FN5oI-M4AmQOSJ5L8QAAZHi053inx5OUvgRBvTMnIggS9dv43460j9kMuW3Xqoo0rSaxuuxecssHCf-hjyS9jikEYkQ-eTkZf0N1JkOaCTxsV1qmzisBhY/w547-h292/image.png" width="547" /></a></div></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;">Another way of seeing how churn is changing is to look at the last three years of Oct-Jan switching data only, and compare like-for-like volumes. What you see is that wins are at a three-year high over that period (196 in 2021 vs 191 in 2019 and 145 in 2020). So, while there's no dramatic change, the signs do point to continued growth in switching.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn1tMFtrEeWbyRQe_lWXyeH658Mg373CkiIC7gKbeMjd-GMRUwwKQcMw292xusVlERPskyktZ1qi0vLElMDtIz4dJtfc95x2JBlHVdO0LwfDTNVNJWi8J1HveRmPUmx9uKbJOOeOJzNfs/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1274" data-original-width="1938" height="405" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn1tMFtrEeWbyRQe_lWXyeH658Mg373CkiIC7gKbeMjd-GMRUwwKQcMw292xusVlERPskyktZ1qi0vLElMDtIz4dJtfc95x2JBlHVdO0LwfDTNVNJWi8J1HveRmPUmx9uKbJOOeOJzNfs/w617-h405/image.png" width="617" /></a></div><br /><br /></div></div><b>2. The Key and Bromcom continue to be the destinations of choice for switchers.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Arbor, Bromcom and ScholarPack continue to be the big 3 MIS in terms of winning over switchers, so there's nothing new there. However, what is new is that Oct 20-Dec 21 was the first period I've ever seen where SIMS was only the fifth best MIS for new wins (Pupil Asset managed to win 5% of schools, compared to 4% for SIMS). Now this could be a blip - SIMS were acquired by Montagu during the period in question - and that kind of transaction is bound to lead to some short-term disruption. Nonetheless, the new management team at SIMS will no doubt be doing all they can to reverse this trend in future periods. Conversely, the Pupil Asset team (who have recently rebranded to Juniper Horizons) will be cheered to see those signs of growth after a comparatively quiet previous year or two.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Another thing to note is that, as with overall market numbers, it makes a difference whether you're looking at schools won, or the number of pupils in schools won. Bromcom won 16% of schools in the period (3rd place for wins), but 25% when measured by pupils (2nd place for wins).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUcehgtS1LJlYI4r83GQDSrslSern8UkX5HbVSE2DPu3S6tsivrodxe4f9w5TtidFevu11Scd81Rf_Gf4FjYzITgDdVI38ZLkvbd9tsjUDiOICz-nGSQiq0utEFHDjpblVl89NNBSl6F4/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1274" data-original-width="1920" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUcehgtS1LJlYI4r83GQDSrslSern8UkX5HbVSE2DPu3S6tsivrodxe4f9w5TtidFevu11Scd81Rf_Gf4FjYzITgDdVI38ZLkvbd9tsjUDiOICz-nGSQiq0utEFHDjpblVl89NNBSl6F4/w654-h432/image.png" width="654" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>3. Secondaries have (at least) two non-SIMS cloud options.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">For at least a year now, Arbor and Bromcom have together accounted for c. 75%+ of secondary switchers, with a fairly even split between the two. That's a significant change from 2019, when SIMS were stronger and Arbor had less success with secondaries. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">That's surely good news for schools, who will be increasingly aware that they have (at least) two cloud options. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFtS1ImX7HAKgWX7FkV8BOPFUkQWHyI7WuOS2KDnskAHMgG21PljMKjTIKr0db398EMM0zbDvjNmmcir315zgo_UDTX4bzQk1nb7V_pCL9SJO8NpRmt4QXcYfZRpbpurgUykqVCufvsW8/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1042" data-original-width="1480" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFtS1ImX7HAKgWX7FkV8BOPFUkQWHyI7WuOS2KDnskAHMgG21PljMKjTIKr0db398EMM0zbDvjNmmcir315zgo_UDTX4bzQk1nb7V_pCL9SJO8NpRmt4QXcYfZRpbpurgUykqVCufvsW8/w558-h392/image.png" width="558" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>4. That said, there are plenty of other people trying to shake up the market </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Of course, that doesn't mean things won't *ever* change. The last year has seen huge upheaval in the market: as well as The Key buying Arbor, IRIS bought iSAMS and Juniper bought Pupil Asset. <a href="http://faronicswise.co.uk/">Faronics</a> have been looking to grow a market presence for a few years now, and <a href="https://www.go4schools.com/mis/">Go4Schools</a> also have an embryonic MIS. Keep an eye on <a href="https://www.et-aims.com/">ET-AIMS</a>, which has recently entered the market too. And of course, as I mentioned in my disclaimer, I'm also now helping <a href="https://www.compass.education/">Compass</a> (an Australia-based global MIS vendor) to launch in the UK. That's a lot of additional energy being expended on trying to shake up the market...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1624114754295" style="position: relative;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>5. You now have a choice for your MIS market analysis! </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">I sometimes mention how I was inspired (and helped greatly) to get started with MIS market by <a href="https://twitter.com/GrazReed">Graham Reed</a>, who was the first to produce publicly available MIS market stats, and still cranks out interesting <a href="https://www.omegapegasus.com/mischallenge/misanalytics">MIS analytics in Power BI</a>. Well, now The Key have gotten in on the act, with <a href="https://thekeysupport.com/insights/2021/06/18/arbor-and-scholarpack-lead-the-way-as-mis-switching-accelerates/">their very own Tableau-powered MIS market analysis</a>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">What I'm saying is: we're basically now our own sector. Perhaps someone will start a blog to analyse our market share of MIS market page views? And it can surely only be a matter of time before we get our own BETT award category?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Anyway, given this new competitive landscape, I feel the need to provide at least a couple of interactive charts as a thank you for making it all the way to the end. So to close out the blog, here is the full term-by-term picture from Oct 2018 to Jan 2021 (both by school and pupil numbers):
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div></div>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1624124636767" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Story 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Sc/SchoolMISdatatermlyJan21/Story1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="SchoolMISdatatermlyJan21/Story1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Sc/SchoolMISdatatermlyJan21/Story1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1624124636767'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='540px';vizElement.style.height='707px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-77040904469250010892021-02-20T06:58:00.005-08:002021-04-26T07:56:22.902-07:00In edtech, AI is only the answer if you know the question<p>There's much talk these days about how Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) can transform education. Century Tech have just announced <a href="https://integrations.century.tech/">Century APIs</a>, which moves them from being a learning platform to being also a form of middleware, providing partners with access to their AI technology as a service. Sparx have been busy building a personalised learning experience for schools (<a href="https://sparx.co.uk/personalised-learning/">though they prefer to describe their approach as "Intelligence Augmentation" rather than full AI</a>). And Quizlet (an edtech "unicorn") have a service called <a href="https://quizlet.com/en-gb/features/learn">Quizlet Learn</a>, which uses ML to provide an adaptive learning experience. </p><p>Now, I'm not an expert in the area, so this blog isn't going to be a rigorous analysis of what AI/ML is, or who's doing it best. But I am an edtech entrepreneur, and I hear lots of other edtech entrepreneurs considering whether to use AI/ML, so the purpose of this blog is to propose a way of answering that question.</p><p>Or, to put it another way, I'm asking: "what problems <i>should</i> AI be trying to address?". I've seen too many business plans which can be summarised as: "we're a bit like other things, but with AI, so better"; and that <i>might</i> be true... but why? </p><p>Let's examine the question by using the following wildly simplistic anatomisation of the learning process:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Content (knowledge, facts, ideas, skills etc) is created in the form of lesson plans, videos, worksheets, quizzes and such.</li><li>That content is shared somehow with a student.</li><li>The student attempts to absorb the content using the materials provided.</li><li>A teacher (or software) marks the student's work.</li><li>(Sometimes) the student revises or revisits that content.</li><li>(Sometimes) there is a final test to assess whether the content was correctly learned.</li></ol><p></p><p>So, how could AI help with each of those steps?</p><p>Starting with point 1, I don't think many people are using AI to <i>create</i> content, so a pretty key point is: did you create good content for the AI to have fun with in the first place? And this is my first anxiety: </p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><i>If you're an AI-powered product, and you don't have a good rationale for why your content is better than someone else's, then why should I believe your AI is going to change that? </i></p></blockquote><p>AI can't (yet) turn a bad module into a good one: it's not rerecording videos with better analogies, or more succinct summaries, or whatever. Some might argue that AI can help pick the preferred content type for the specific student, but that sounds a lot to me like learning styles, and I've read <a href="https://daisychristodoulou.com/2012/02/evidence-and-learning-styles/">enough Daisy Christodoulou</a> to be highly sceptical as to whether that's a thing.</p><p>Moving to point 2, I guess you could make a case for AI somehow informing the sharing process, but I don't see that happening anywhere in practice. Rather, people build software, and they make tonnes of choices that are then hardwired into the learning experience, which may end up mattering more than anything their AI does. Stuff like: </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>how you log in</li><li>what the user interface looks like</li><li>how quickly pages load</li><li>how many clicks are needed to move between pages</li></ul><p></p><p>Why does that matter? Well, in a recent conversation about <a href="https://www.carousel-learning.com/">Carousel</a> (the quizzing platform I've co-founded) recently, an esteemed academic made the excellent point to me that <b>the biggest difference we can make is to get someone who previously wouldn't have attempted a task to attempt it</b>. Until then, I hadn't spent enough time thinking about how taking a student from "didn't bother" to "learned a thing imperfectly" is perhaps a more profound change than going from "learned a thing imperfectly" to "learned a thing well". And maybe the best way to do that is to make it so easy to use that even easily distracted (or low-resilience) learners give it a crack. </p><p>So, the point is:</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><i>If you're an AI-powered product, by all means spend money on the AI, but don't forget to make the product good in all the non-AI ways that may end up impacting the learning experience too.</i></p></blockquote><p>OK, time for points 3 and 5. The reason why I'm lumping these together is because it's actually pretty important - and not always clear - as to whether an AI-powered product is intended to be a full curriculum product, or a revision / homework / supplementary learning tool. Now, just from a sales perspective, I think it's much easier to sell a revision/homework edtech tool than a full curriculum product, at least for the time being. But also, from a design perspective, your focus here makes a big difference to what you'd ask your AI to do. A full curriculum product is likely to significantly more complicated, with more types of content and tasks, each of which needs deep and careful thinking about how AI might help. On the other hand, if you're just a revision / homework tool, maybe your main "thing" is just questions (or videos, or pods, or whatever).</p><p>Either way, at this step the only things I can think of that the AI can do is:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>sequence content differently</li><li>select different types of content (Learning styles!) </li></ul><div>Now sure, I can see a value in AI for sequencing... but is it <i>transformationally</i> better than a traditional, well-designed curriculum? I'm not convinced, yet. I guess the complexity and popularity of a course are factors, too: there are some pretty great and well-thought-through primary maths curricula out there, so maybe AI can't add a tonne by suggesting a different sequencing. On the other hand, perhaps there's more fertile ground with more complex and less-universal areas such as A-Level Physics, for example. In any case, my point is:</div><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><i>If your AI is focused on sequencing content or selecting different types of materials, you need to be able to explain why this makes you more effective than a decent teacher.</i></div><p></p></blockquote><p>Finally, let's think about points 4 and 6. Here's where I see the most potential for AI/ML. So much edtech revolves around multiple choice questions, because they're easy for a machine to mark, so I can see AI playing a major role in expanding the range of assessment types that computers can handle. Startups like <a href="https://progressay.com/">Progressay</a> (essay marking) and <a href="https://www.lexplore.com/gb/">Lexplore</a> (reading dyslexia assessments using eye tracking) interest me: the appeal is that I recognise the problem, and can understand - and therefore believe in - the role of AI. </p><p>Another angle that AI/ML can help with is spaced repetition (i.e. how frequently, and at what interval, questions are asked and re-asked to help embed knowledge). This is something we've been thinking about a lot at Carousel, and we expect to introduce innovations in this area over the next year or so. This is something that really isn't intuitive to teachers; and even if it was, it's hard to have the discipline to remember to re-quiz students on a subject when you have so much new ground to cover. So I can see AI/ML playing a really useful role in the revision and embedding process. But, at the risk of repeating myself, this will only work if the content is well-designed, and your product is designed in a way that students actually want to interact with.</p><p>Finally, it's worth remembering that many of the Big Technological Leaps Forward we need to make in edtech can be achieved without AI/ML. I'm also co-founder of a MAT assessment platform called <a href="https://www.smartgrade.co.uk/">Smartgrade</a>, built with input from the legends at <a href="https://evidencebased.education/">Evidence Based Education</a>. Smartgrade uses a bunch of algorithms to standardise common assessments, and also to feed back on how well designed they are. That's not AI/ML; but it is clever use of technology to automate and improve assessment accuracy. AI isn't the only way.</p><p>So in summary, I'm not saying AI can't help with edtech. Rather, I'm saying:</p><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><i>Your theory of AI will be most compelling if you can articulate which part of the learning process it tackles, and why that bit needs AI in the first place.</i></p></blockquote><p></p><p><br /></p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-88764907216058814702021-01-18T12:59:00.004-08:002021-02-20T05:11:45.045-08:00I now sell things<p>If you're a regular reader of my blog then you're probably here either because you're professionally involved in edtech in some way and so feel obligated to keep abreast of the sector, or because you just like niche stats and charts about school information systems. Either way, I now sell products and services which may interest you.</p><p>To be more specific, I offer bespoke sector research and consultancy via my company (Edtech Experts Ltd), and also license two products:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>The English state school Management Information System (MIS) dataset that underpins my blog</b>. I now have eleven (count 'em!) years of data on MIS market usage broken down by schools. The data includes a row per year for each school, with a flag whenever a school switches, plus information on the school's phase (e.g. primary/secondary), pupil numbers, postcode, type (e.g. academy/LA), MAT affiliation and MAT size (if relevant). </li><li><b>A jam-packed, 50 page report on the UK MIS market</b>, which includes: </li><ol><li><b>A recap of the past year</b>, including a summary of the major acquisitions (and hoo boy were there acquisitions in 2020).</li><li><b>A tonne of analysis on MIS market stats</b> which goes well beyond the blog. This is my favourite bit to write so I really go to town.</li><li><b>NEW customer satisfaction data</b>, including some fascinating and NEVER BEFORE SEEN customer satisfaction headline data from the lovely people at <a href="https://teachertapp.co.uk/">Teacher Tapp</a>, who also collect and license some very valuable data on the MIS market. Oh, and vendor app review data which is also intriguing.</li><li><b>A taxonomy of what's in a MIS</b>, which is a surprisingly philosophical question.</li><li><b>Analysis of the big players in the market</b> and their range of products / module coverage.</li><li><b>Vendor profiles </b>for the major MIS.</li><li><b>Information on UK MIS procurement</b>, including how MATs / LA schools buy a MIS.</li></ol></ol><div>Get in touch if you're interested in any of the above. Prices are reasonable I swear, and I do hefty discounts for MIS vendors (because they're nice people and the report is better for having them in the loop) and researchers / smaller companies (because I've been there). I'll also gladly do free, no-obligation sneak previews of both products on a call, if that helps you understand what I've got. </div><div><br /></div><div>Oh, and more reports are coming soon covering other areas of edtech, so watch this space!</div><div><br /></div><div>For more information<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, give me a shout on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a><span id="docs-internal-guid-c07330e2-7fff-f3c1-371b-4024b1d3ee3f"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span>or via <a href="mailto:josh@edtechexperts.co.uk" style="text-decoration-line: none;">email</a></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></div><p></p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-40454922355831527462020-12-16T09:39:00.013-08:002020-12-16T10:08:53.607-08:00MIS Market Moves 2020: COVID didn't stop schools switching away from SIMS<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">My usual disclaimer: I have past, present and (hopefully) future commercial relationships with many MIS vendors. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. </span><b style="color: #666666; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6667px; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service and offer free, informal consultations on MIS procurement to schools and MATs.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6667px; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If you would like to discuss any of this, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a><span id="docs-internal-guid-c07330e2-7fff-f3c1-371b-4024b1d3ee3f"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span> or via <a href="mailto:josh@edtechexperts.co.uk">email</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></p><p>I made three bold predictions about the MIS earlier this year:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>In January, when talking with a colleague at the BETT Awards, I wagered that one or more MIS would be bought or sold this year.</li><li>Around the same time, I bet a MIS founder that there would be under 1,000 switchers this year; he reckoned it would be over that number.</li><li>In <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/07/expect-mis-switching-volumes-to-be.html">a July blog</a> I went further and said I expected MIS switching volumes to be down on the previous year. That meant I expected under 850 switchers in 2019/20.</li></ol><p></p><p>So, yeah, I scored a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s" target="_blank">Meatloaf</a>.</p><p>Taking those predictions in order, (1) sounds charmingly cautious when reflecting back on the MIS meat market that has been 2020. There have been three major deals, with <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/12/what-acquisition-of-arbor-by-key-means.html" target="_blank">Arbor</a>, <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/10/what-iriss-purchase-of-isams-means-for.html" target="_blank">iSAMS</a> and <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/12/what-acquisition-of-sims-by-montagu.html">SIMS</a> all changing hands. But still, a win's a win. As for (2), well I win that one as well, but in fairness to the founder, COVID was almost certainly a break on switching. So I'll still smugly claim my pint when this is all over, but he gets the moral victory.</p><p>As for (3), I was just plain wrong. As you'll see from what follows, <b>2019/20 was the biggest switching year since (my) records began in 2010, with 901 schools changing MIS provider</b>. That's newsworthy: it means that even while a pandemic was raging, schools cared sufficiently about their choice of MIS to change their setup. Moreover, the activity wasn't just confined to primaries, where it's relatively well-established now that switching needn't be a hassle; there was more secondary switching activity than ever too. </p><div>So let's get into it, as there's plenty of good stuff in the latest batch of English state school MIS data. As ever, I've blended <a href="https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/school_mis_suppliers_as_of_the_a_2" target="_blank">the data released by the DfE</a> with a bunch of other current and historical datasets to drill down into what's really going on. Below are the charts I found the most revealing as I was crunching the data; my analysis of what it all means follows immediately after.</div><div><br /></div>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1608084680857" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt=' ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2020_10_01MISmarketv1/Story1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="2020_10_01MISmarketv1/Story1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/20/2020_10_01MISmarketv1/Story1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1608084680857'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='520px';vizElement.style.height='637px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
<div><br /></div><div><div>Here are the headlines:</div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>There were more switchers than ever before</b>, with 901 schools changing MIS. That just pips 2017, when there were 899 switchers. That's somewhat surprising: like I say, <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/07/expect-mis-switching-volumes-to-be.html" target="_blank">switching was down in the first term of 2019-20</a>, and that was before COVID. That will hearten the new MIS owners, who'll hope for further increases in years to come, particularly as schools with locally hosted MIS reflect on how their lives would have been easier during this dumpster fire of a year if they hadn't had to access a MIS that was hosted in a school server room.</li><li><b>Arbor is the preferred choice of schools switching MIS</b>. I'm going to give Arbor their own bullet point this year, because they clocked up 413 wins, which is more than any other MIS has managed in a year in the 11 years I have data for. That takes them to 1,065 schools overall - a 1.9 percentage point (p.p.) increase. They were also the clear winner when measuring growth by pupil numbers gaining 1.8 p.p. overall. Bravo, team Arbor!</li><li><b>Bromcom and ScholarPack also did well</b>. <b>Bromcom </b>grew by 0.8 p.p. when measured by # schools, and by 1.1% when measured by pupils. That matches their growth rate from the previous year, and makes them the third largest vendor by pupil #s with a 4.4% share (behind SIMS and RM). They also won more secondaries than anyone else for the third year running, though Arbor is catching up (2019: Bromcom 57, Arbor 14; 2020: Bromcom 58, Arbor 52.) So hats off to Bromcom too. <b>ScholarPack</b> also have something to cheer: they won 190 schools, taking their market share to 6.4% by number of schools, maintaining their place as the third place vendor when measured by number of schools.</li><li><b>Nobody else has much to shout about</b>. <b>Pupil Asset</b> has recently been rebranded as Horizons following their sale to Juniper earlier this year, so it's perhaps understandable that their market share stayed flat at 2%. They'll be hoping for better days in the coming year: their strategy of combining a MIS business with their leading position in the primary tracker market needs to start bearing fruit to justify the considerable investment being made. <b>RM Integris </b>dropped a bit for the fourth year in a row (2019: 9.7%; 2020: 9.2%), which will be cause for considerable head-scratching in their Oxfordshire office. They're the vendor I find hardest to get a handle on: there's nothing disastrously wrong, but somehow they can't translate their position as the largest cloud vendor into a growing business. <b>Advanced</b> slipped back again (2019: 1.6%; 2020: 1.5%), and honestly it's hard to see any signs for cheer for them, given the dramatic declines they've suffered since they had an 8% share a decade ago. And <b>SchoolPod</b> have stagnated at 0.6%, so there's not much to report on there. </li><li><b>SIMS continues to slide</b>, with its market share down to 72.3% (from 75.1% in 2019) when measured by number of schools. Most concerning for <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/12/what-acquisition-of-sims-by-montagu.html" target="_blank">imminent owners Montagu</a> will be a record number of losses overall (692), with a notable rise in secondary losses too (2020: 90; 2019: 58; 2018: 36). That's not ideal for the new parents - while SIMS has been losing market share at primary for some years, the hope has been that the secondary business would be more resilient. This will only add to the urgency to get good SIMS cloud products out there for all phases, but of course that's no small feat. </li><li><b>The Key is now the second largest vendor</b>, with a combined 11.2% market share when measured by number of schools, leapfrogging RM, who have 9.2%. They're also the biggest by # pupils (8.3% compared to 6.4% for RM).</li><li><b>Larger MATs are the most eager to move away from SIMS</b>. In 2014, 79% of schools now in the largest MATs (30+ schools) used SIMS. Just 41% of those same schools now do so. While the declines are slightly less pronounced in other MAT size categories, they're still meaningful, and SIMS has just 63% of the MAT market overall when measured by school numbers (down from 84% in 2014). <a href="https://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/12/what-acquisition-of-sims-by-montagu.html" target="_blank">As I blogged about earlier in the week</a>, SIMS needs a new MAT strategy, and fast. </li></ol></div><div><br /></div><div>To finish, I'd like to zoom in on SIMS's churn (i.e. their losses as a percentage of prior year school volumes) from 2014 to 2020:</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisXz0iOJIlIaCDBa20L2vjpgrlq1w9sCw4enF07g4VS-IblvEsRkc2Fii8WiGpgJviaGaoVGuW9agMRBrlfXCbx8oR8YPpXinc-gzQQ8lXfW9qw4hBv5BSBeYYChJQujxzzLoxpJ5qPY8/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1170" data-original-width="1762" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisXz0iOJIlIaCDBa20L2vjpgrlq1w9sCw4enF07g4VS-IblvEsRkc2Fii8WiGpgJviaGaoVGuW9agMRBrlfXCbx8oR8YPpXinc-gzQQ8lXfW9qw4hBv5BSBeYYChJQujxzzLoxpJ5qPY8/w640-h424/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />Now I love a nice, snug trend line, and they don't get much snugger than that! For six years, SIMS' churn rate has increased inexorably, and if things continue on that trajectory they'll be churning 5%+ in a year's time. This will no doubt concern the incumbents and cheer the challengers: in many ways, SIMS churn is THE important number, since the market can't meaningfully move without SIMS giving up schools to the competition. </div><p></p><div><i>PS a note for the fellow data-crunchers: I've done quite a bit of work to my dataset in the past year, and in the process I've "found" some more switchers that I wasn't previously reporting. That means you won't necessarily achieve an exact reconciliation of these figures with previous blogs. </i></div>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-24880804395501085832020-12-15T09:15:00.006-08:002020-12-15T17:11:35.738-08:00What the acquisition of SIMS by Montagu means for the sector<span id="docs-internal-guid-9eb2f793-7fff-3189-4acf-4f018d11ab4c"><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="color: #666666;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">My usual disclaimer: I have past, present and (hopefully) future commercial relationships with many MIS vendors. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. If you have questions about this analysis, or any other blog, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a><span id="docs-internal-guid-c07330e2-7fff-f3c1-371b-4024b1d3ee3f"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span> or via <a href="mailto:josh@edtechexperts.co.uk">email</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">. I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service - get in touch for more info.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Capita today </span><a href="https://www.capita.com/news/agreement-to-sell-education-software-solutions" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">announced that it has agreed to sell Education Support Services (ESS)</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, the division of Capita that contains SIMS, to “Tiger UK Bidco Limited”. They describe that as “a newly formed company established by funds advised by Montagu Private Equity”. Tantalisingly, they go on to say “Montagu has also agreed to invest in ParentPay (Holdings) Ltd (‘ParentPay’), a provider of education technology. Following successful completion of both investments, ESS will become part of the ParentPay Group.” The press release also references the need for the deal to achieve “regulatory approvals”.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In other words, unless the Competitions and Markets Authority (CMA) kiboshes the whole thing, SIMS (leading provider of school MIS) and ParentPay (leading provider of school payments and comms solutions) are merging, and Montagu will be the new owners.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">That’s news. While Montagu’s interest has been widely trailed, the involvement of ParentPay had not previously trickled into the public domain. Here’s what I think it means for the sector:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">1. The CMA are going to be busy</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Capita has history when it comes to justifying its size and business practices to regulatory authorities. In 2003, following a protracted legal dispute with Bromcom, </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2003/may/09/schools.uk" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">SIMS managed to escape intervention from the authorities by making “voluntary assurances”</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> that they would encourage third parties to interface with its product. This led to them developing APIs that were accessible to all to be able to access the data held within SIMS, on the basis that this would facilitate a health market, including competition with SIMS and its various modules.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">SIMS may have lost a little market share since then, but not a tonne, and when you combine them with ParentPay (who also own the popular “SchoolComms” product), you end up with leading MIS, payments and comms solutions all under one roof. You’d expect some of their competitors to object to that, so I anticipate the CMA getting calls.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2. This deal isn’t necessarily about creating value by cross-selling products...</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Typically when deals like this are engineered, there’s a rationale for increasing enterprise value by cross-selling across client lists, or making products stronger by having them under one roof. I think this is perhaps less likely here than normal though: both groups already work with a majority</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">of UK schools, so I can’t imagine there are many customers of one who haven’t heard of the other! Equally, ParentPay and SchoolComms already have tidy SIMS integrations, so I don’t see <i>that</i> much room for product enhancements by being under the same roof. I guess international expansion could be an area for cross-selling, but even then it’s a stretch: ParentPay have traction in Germany and the Netherlands, and it’s not easy to move a MIS into a territory that speaks a different language. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Indeed, there’s even a case for some value destruction, since SIMS have competing products (SIMS Pay and SIMS InTouch). One rationale for buying SIMS </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">might</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> have been “upsell bolt-ons like SIMS Pay and SIMS InTouch more aggressively to increase average revenue per customer”, but you'd imagine that’s off the table now SIMS is under the same roof as ParentPay and SchoolComms, since they’re the main business you’d be trying to win customers from! </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">3. ...But management may be a major motivator for the merger.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ESS has lost a lot of people over the last couple of years. A bunch of the former SIMS team have ended up at Juniper; others have drifted off into other sectors. That creates a problem for the buyer: how do you ensure that there’s high quality management across the business? To be clear, I’m sure there are plenty of capable people at ESS; but it’s hard to hire when your parent company is cash-strapped and the future of a division is uncertain, so my default assumption is that there will also be gaps in key roles. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ParentPay, on the other hand, has a reputation for competent management and savvy use of private capital to support expansion alongside organic growth. </span><a href="https://megabuyte.com/free-to-air/5c077edbe4b0435c440ed837/parentpay-class-act" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This Megabuyte article</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> helpfully describes the the key acquisitions made with the backing of Lloyds in 2017 and 2018. </span><a href="https://www.insidermedia.com/news/midlands/former-paypal-md-to-join-coventry-company" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Management has been further bolstered during 2020</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, with longstanding CEO Clint Wilson moving to be Group Corporate Development Director and Mark Brant (ex-PayPal) joining as Managing Director. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What’s more, you’d assume that Local Authority support units (who could play a make-or-break role in SIMS’s future) will already have relationships with the ParentPay team and so the familiarity and capacity they offer to oversee both relationships could be very appealing to the new owners.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">4. There’s more to MIS than ever before.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A surprisingly hard question to answer is: what is a school MIS? For sure, it’s where you manage your student and staff records, and track attendance and exclusions. For English state schools it’s also how you submit your school census return. For secondaries it’s where you store your Exams data. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Beyond that though, the picture is fuzzier. There is a large bunch of functionality that is frequently purchased by schools, and which is at the very least MIS-adjacent. Timetabling, ePayments, comms, assessment and behaviour all fit into the category of modules where the MIS competes for market share </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">with third party vendors</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">. Safeguarding, finance and HR have historically been further away from the MIS, but they’re getting closer, with MIS vendors starting to release solid solutions in these areas.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So I think a big macro story of 2020 is that the owners of all the main MIS now see the addressable market in the broadest possible way. The six main vendors are Montagu (owners of SIMS), The Key (owners of ScholarPack and Arbor), RM, Bromcom, Juniper (owners of Pupil Asset, now rebranded as Horizons) and IRIS (owners of iSAMS). All of them have a strategy that combines selling a core MIS alongside modules covering an ever-expanding array of extended functionality. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">That wasn’t a given five years ago: ScholarPack originally grew fast because they were simple, and didn’t try to do too much; and Arbor’s early strategy involved promoting their read-write API and the community of apps it enabled. So there was a point when I thought that a Salesforce-like ecosystem would emerge, with MIS vendors sticking to core functionality and best-of-breed partners doing the rest. I guess that’s partly happened - there are more bolt-ons out there than ever - but it no longer looks like the MIS vendors’ preferred model. From now on, assume that if there’s a popular module to be offered, the MIS vendors want to sell it to you.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">5. Capita won’t be overjoyed about the price - but market watchers aren’t surprised.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">When Capita announced the proposed sale of SIMS, they were reportedly after a valuation of £500m+. Instead, they’re having to make do with £355-400m. This breaks down as £298m on competition, £57m of liabilities transferring, and £45m extra if the tie-up with ParentPay gains approval. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Now, since none of us get to see the magic spreadsheet that arrives at this valuation, it’s hard to speculate on whether it’s a good deal for the buyer or seller, but what it is possible to say based on Capita’s own statements is that when they embarked upon the process they hoped for a better outcome than 7-8 times trailing earnings. (As I mentioned in </span><a href="http://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/06/what-capitas-proposed-sale-of-sims.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">my previous blog on the SIMS sale</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, ESS had profits of around £50m in the most recent reported financial year).</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Why has this happened? My guess is that it was becoming harder and harder to spin a “growth” story for SIMS. As I’ve </span><a href="http://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/07/expect-mis-switching-volumes-to-be.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">blogged</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><a href="http://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2019/12/mis-market-moves-2019-challengers-are.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">about</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> previously, SIMS has seen increasing declines in market share in recent years. There’s not been any dramatic freefall, but still, churn in English state schools has risen from 0.1% in 2012 to 3.6% by the end of 2019, and the imminent 2020 data is unlikely to offer much reassurance. The rollout of SIMS 8 (the cloud version of the product) has also been slow going, and so without being able to point to strong numbers in that new cloud business, it must be hard to paint a very rosy picture of SIMS’s future without considerable management attention. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">6. Schools will be hoping for improved execution on SIMS’s strategy.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I don’t think it’s controversial to say that there has been some frustration amongst school MIS commissioners with SIMS’s strategy in recent years. The frequently-delayed move to the cloud has impacted on the trust that is afforded to them by their customers. High turnover of school account managers also hasn’t helped. So the new owners of SIMS need to get their strategy right to meet the needs of their customers, and deliver on their commitments. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">The change of ownership also presents </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">an opportunity for SIMS to reconsider the LA-focused business model that served them so well for so long, but which needs updating to reflect changes in the market. Increased appeal to MATs should be a part of this, and getting that right requires tailored functionality; not just relationship building.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">7. Private equity deals have unintentionally funny names</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Look, I know this isn’t the main point here, but the “Tiger UK Bidco Limited” bit of the press release made me smile. I mean I get it: it’s a vehicle set up to facilitate a transition prior to the hoped-for ParentPay merger; but still, it’s fun to speculate as to what the new name means for SIMS staff. Will they have to call customers to say “Hi, we’re delighted to tell you that SIMS is being bought by Tiger UK Bidco Limited (new structure pending)?” Will they get </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Tiger UK Bidco Limited </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">added to their business cards until ParentPay join the fold, perhaps alongside a hastily-designed wild cat logo? Will they call their HQ the Hot TUB? (Please tell me they’re calling their HQ the Hot TUB.) I shall be tracking future developments in this area with particularly keen interest. </span></p></span><p> </p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-36606437360810784412020-12-02T11:25:00.009-08:002020-12-03T06:18:33.828-08:00What the acquisition of Arbor by The Key means for the sector<span id="docs-internal-guid-4fb7120b-7fff-eb00-28cb-868420d5ad8d"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">My usual disclaimer: I have past, present and (hopefully) future commercial relationships with many of the UK's MIS vendors. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. If you have questions about this analysis, or any other blog, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a><span id="docs-internal-guid-c07330e2-7fff-f3c1-371b-4024b1d3ee3f"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span> or via <a href="mailto:josh@edtechexperts.co.uk">email</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">. I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service - get in touch for more info.</span></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://thekeysupport.com/insights/2020/12/02/welcoming-arbor-to-the-key/">The Key have just announced the acquisition of Arbor</a>, meaning that the businesses of ScholarPack and Arbor are now under the same roof. So what implications will this have for the sector? Here are my thoughts.</span></p><br /><ol style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In many ways, it means less than you might imagine</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. My understanding is that there are no imminent plans to merge the brands. Since both products are already growing nicely independently from each other, it would be a surprise if dramatic changes were made early on. Moreover, I suspect there’s less crossover in customer base than you might think: ScholarPack markets to primaries on its simplicity and ease-of-use, whereas Arbor is increasingly going for all phases and types of schools, and promotes its breadth of modules and workflow improvement features. So I think it would be wrong to assume the deal heralds a dramatic short-term change in strategy for either brand. Of course, deals like this can come with a management reshuffle, but even that may not alter much, as the cultures and management styles of the two organisations seem to me to be quite aligned. It's also a good sign that <a href="https://thekeysupport.com/insights/2020/12/02/welcoming-arbor-to-the-key/" target="_blank">The Key's press release</a> talked about welcoming "James Weatherill and his team" to the group - that's the kind of language you only use if you're expecting them to stick around.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There’s a decent case that they’re stronger together</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. Arbor and ScholarPack were both already looking strong individually; together they could be formidable. Between them they’ve accounted for over half of all “MIS switching” schools in each of the past three years (see chart below). That said, they’re not without chinks in the armour: Arbor has been consistently loss-making, and ScholarPack focuses exclusively on primaries, so has a limited addressable market. Together, however, they can serve all phases (including secondary and special, where Arbor is starting to make inroads) within a profitable corporate structure. That’s non-trivial - <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ali-guryel-18892715_educationtechnology-education-schoolmanagementsoftware-activity-6693050404533542912-79Zq/" target="_blank">a recent line of Bromcom marketing</a></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> has been to point to their robust financials and contrast that with their peers, referring to the government’s Economic and Financial Standing (EFS) guidance. I’m not convinced that it matters as much as some think - give me a fast growing loss-making MIS over a rapidly declining profitable MIS anyday - but still, there may be some people inside of Arbor who are relieved not to have to fend off this line of attack any more.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiib1AluPCqOVE4HwnyCmKaQb_yCfswy7DUbT4gS5YtXSdltOz9TO8CVK3k7tgWHSexMS6Kd8Zdc6hE75Iny4rAqxZjyrjsqMGy7m1cwLJluFpGJboIfEr3VKmtCvQC1Ui6WQkbb2plbY/s1338/Screenshot+2020-11-08+at+12.56.22.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1338" data-original-width="1298" height="473" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiib1AluPCqOVE4HwnyCmKaQb_yCfswy7DUbT4gS5YtXSdltOz9TO8CVK3k7tgWHSexMS6Kd8Zdc6hE75Iny4rAqxZjyrjsqMGy7m1cwLJluFpGJboIfEr3VKmtCvQC1Ui6WQkbb2plbY/w458-h473/Screenshot+2020-11-08+at+12.56.22.png" width="458" /></a></div><p></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The sector now has two chunky challengers, each with 8%+ of English state schools</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. Since 2010, SIMS have been the undisputed sector leader with at least three quarters of English state schools (2010: 82%; 2020: 75%), followed by RM Integris out on its own in second place (2010: 7.2% market share; 2020: 9.6%). In all that time, nobody else has risen above 6%... until now. Combined, ScholarPack and Arbor share 8.9% of the market when measured by schools in Oct 2019 - and it’ll no doubt be more when the Oct 2020 data is released shortly. I think that matters - while nobody can dispute SIMS’s continued dominance; it’s also now impossible to argue “there are no other real choices”. Close to a fifth of schools opt for systems developed by two strong, profitable challenger companies (Arbor-ScholarPack and RM). When you also factor in the continued growth of Bromcom (with 2.3% of the market by number of schools but 3.4% when measured by pupils) and the increased investment being thrown at Pupil Asset by new owners Juniper (2% of schools), it’s clearer than ever that this is no longer a unipolar vendor world.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There is long-term potential to do cool stuff together</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. While I don’t think the two companies will rush to bash their core products together, I can imagine that they’d start producing joint bolt-on modules fairly early on, perhaps as a first step towards a long-term merged platform. MAT analytics might be a good candidate for this: both have already been investing heavily in this area, but analytics really isn’t the kind of feature you “solve” in a single release. So I’ll be interested to observe whether some crossover modules compatible with both products emerge on the roadmap in the coming months and years. </span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Don’t rule out another entrant</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. One side effect of this closely watched merger (together with the ongoing SIMS sale and recent iSAMS sale to IRIS) is that the profile of UK school MIS has been raised across the board. It’s a cash-generative business with a potentially vulnerable dominant vendor, and that’s an attractive set of fundamentals for private equity in an uncertain business climate. So I wouldn’t rule out a US or Australian vendor making an appearance in the UK market in the next year or two. </span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: decimal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Capita really needs to crack on and sell SIMS</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. It has been well documented that SIMS is up for sale, with recent reports suggesting that <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-capita-divestment/uks-capita-in-exclusive-talks-with-pe-firm-montagu-for-ess-sale-idUKKBN2870SA">Montagu is now in exclusive talks to acquire ESS</a> (the division of Capita that contains SIMS). Capita has also been open about needing cash to service debts, with <a href="https://www.capita.com/news/capita-plc-half-year-results-2020" target="_blank">the most recent half-yearly results</a> talking about disposal proceeds being used “to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing net debt and pension liabilities</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">”. That makes it seem likely that a sale will proceed. The problem for the eventual buyer though is that the market isn’t standing still while they close the deal; and the fundamentals of the SIMS business are unlikely to be improving in the meantime. So while the challengers are fizzing with ideas and flush with new investment, it’ll be difficult for the current SIMS management to do a lot to address the threat until their own sale goes through. And of course if a deal </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">doesn’t</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> happen, it’s not like the parent company can be relied upon to stump up new investment. So while I’m sure Capita won’t sell at any price, if anything the ScholarPack-Arbor merger adds even more urgency to the deal.</span></p></li></ol></span>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-86745768069912036722020-10-20T13:48:00.004-07:002020-10-22T03:20:54.892-07:00What IRIS's purchase of iSAMS means for the school MIS market<p>IRIS today <a href="https://www.iris.co.uk/news/iris-software-group-acquires-school-management-system-isams/" target="_blank">announced their acquisition of iSAMS</a>, the leading MIS provider with independent and British international schools. The news itself wasn't a surprise - Education Investor scooped <a href="https://www.educationinvestor.co.uk/exclusive-isams-shareholders-explore-sale-options-as-capita-sims-auction-triggers-wave-of-consolidation-in-mis-market/">the mooted sale in early September</a> and <a href="https://www.educationinvestor.co.uk/exclusive-private-equity-backed-trade-buyer-closes-in-on-isams/" target="_blank">the likely buyer in early October</a> - but now it's all confirmed it seems like a good time to reflect on the impact on the UK MIS market. Here are my thoughts:</p><p><b>1. The English secondary state school market should become more competitive</b>. </p><p>I've <a href="http://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2019/12/mis-market-moves-2019-challengers-are.html">blogged</a> <a href="http://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2020/07/expect-mis-switching-volumes-to-be.html">extensively</a> now about how the English MIS market has opened up in recent years, with ScholarPack, Arbor and Bromcom all taking share away from SIMS. However, when you look beneath the overall decline of SIMS (from 83% in 2015 in to 75% at the start of this year), you see that almost all SIMS's losses were with primaries (particularly primary Multi Academy Trusts, or MATs). Indeed, SIMS's share of English state secondaries is actually <i>up</i> since 2015 (from 85% to 87%). Bromcom have amassed 6% of that market, and Arbor are showing signs of building a presence too, but Advanced's dramatic decline (from 16% in 2012 to just 4% today) has meant that SIMS has continued to consolidate with secondaries even as those challengers grew. </p><p>One reason for this has been the comparative lack of choice - primaries these days can choose between six or seven decent and full-feature primary cloud MIS, but the pickings to date have been slimmer at secondary. Moreover, with SIMS still very early in their rollout of their cloud product to primaries, their progression to cloud MIS for secondaries is surely a year or two away yet. That creates a significant (but time-limited) window for challengers to woo those secondaries who are starting to wobble about sticking with their locally-hosted SIMS. And iSAMS are well-placed to grow with English state schools - they already have 24 (mostly secondary) customers, meaning they already have some pre-existing knowledge of what this portion of the sector wants. </p><p>So, while IRIS doesn't <i>have</i> to push iSAMS towards English state secondaries, I'd assume that growth in that sizeable and lucrative market is part of their plan.</p><p><b>2. All the cool kids want to own a challenger MIS.</b></p><p>OK, so by cool kids I mainly mean "private-equity backed edtech portfolio companies", but if you accept that definition then the point stands. After all, <a href="https://junipereducation.org/juniper-education-boosts-its-school-management-software-offering-with-acquisition-of-pupil-asset/">Juniper has already snapped up Pupil Asset</a> this year, while <a href="https://thekeysupport.com/press/leading-mis-provider-acquired-by-the-key/">The Key have acquired one MIS (Scholarpack in 2018)</a> and are reported to be in <a href="https://www.educationinvestor.co.uk/exclusive-cbpe-capital-enters-exclusivity-for-stake-in-newly-merged-school-mis-provider/">advanced discussions to merge with Arbor with CBPE Capital taking a minority stake in the new company</a>. It's also sometimes overlooked that <a href="https://eduspot.co.uk/product/schoolpod/">Community Brands own SchoolPod</a>, a MIS focusing on special and AP schools.</p><p>So why are MIS so "hot right now"? Well, one reason is that they are in some ways a trojan to use to sell just about any form of administrative edtech to schools. Or to put it differently, the core of a MIS is a relatively thin proposition (pupil and staff records, attendance, exclusions, census returns, some reporting, end of list); but by offering that piece of the jigsaw you're well-placed to upsell a bunch of other stuff (assessment, behaviour, comms, multi-school reporting, finance, HR, cashless catering, ePayments etc). Challenger MIS are already well aware of this and are increasingly pushing their customers towards packages that incorporate extended functionality - Bromcom even have a pricing tier called "One Stop Shop"!</p><p>So, if you're IRIS, you already have a leading MAT finance system (IRIS Financials, formerly PS Financials), comms product (Parent Mail) and cashless cashless catering / ID provider (Biostore). And those are all good and fine, but you've no doubt also been eyeing up that lump of MIS software at the centre of all those systems, and thinking to yourselves "hey, if I had one of those I could knit all this together and cross-sell and life would be awesome!" You also might have been nervous about the new modules from MIS vendors that compete with your core business. </p><p>There is a global playbook for this strategy, of course, in the form of <a href="https://www.powerschool.com/">PowerSchool</a>, who are owned by Vista Equity Partners. <a href="https://www.edsurge.com/news/2018-01-22-reuters-powerschool-s-private-equity-owner-is-exploring-sales-options">Vista have spent over £1bn+ to bash together eight companies</a>, making the current PowerSchool a broad and deep provider of school solutions in all kinds of adjacant areas.</p><p>Incidentally, I'm yet to be persuaded that there's <i>quite</i> as much cross-sell potential as some imagine. I see it working just fine in some areas (assessment or comms or multi-school reporting for example), but I'm less convinced when it comes to finance and HR. I get that schools (and school groups in particular) are looking to purchase solutions in all these areas, but I think the key thing for cross-selling is to be able to sell to the same commissioner. However, in my experience, school groups frequently leave MIS, finance and HR in the hands of different commissioners. And the MAT CFOs or HR Directors I know aren't exactly dying for the person who led the MIS procurement to come and tell them which system will meet their sector-specific needs. "Sure, woo, you're telling me I could sync salaries between both systems automatically, but what about support for multiple payscales?", I can hear a former MAT colleague saying...</p><p><b>3. Companies who want to own an MIS but don't yet are running out of options.</b></p><p>If you follow point 2 through logically, you'd imagine that the other school-facing edtech portfolio companies (e.g. Jonas, Parent Pay) will also have contemplated getting into the MIS game. Furthermore, there are a whole slew of investors who got interested in school MIS this year as high-profile companies were put up for sale, but who haven't (yet) ended up owning one. </p><p>I'd therefore expect the owners of some "other" MIS will have been getting plenty of exploratory calls, not least because there aren't a tonne of options left to buy. That doesn't mean anyone else will be willing to sell, of course, but I wouldn't be shocked to see one or two more MIS deals done in the next 12 months. </p>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-46371738149579676272020-07-17T15:33:00.003-07:002020-07-17T15:39:16.294-07:00United Learning have chosen Arbor for their school MIS. Here's why this matters.<div><a href="https://twitter.com/ArborEdu/status/1284152096481312769">Arbor announced today</a> that they had won the tender by United Learning (UL) for a Management Information System.</div><div><br /></div><div>Why is this a big deal? Well…</div><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>UL is the biggest MAT</b>. With 72 state schools, they’re by some distance the biggest MAT. With only 21 MATs having more than 30 schools, this makes them one of the clear “crown jewels" of the sector.</li><li><b>UL are everywhere</b>. That means the surrounding areas of schools from Carlisle to Kent will have an alternative in their area. If you believe that awareness is one of the main issues holding schools back from switching then deals like this help to bring alternatives to the attention of other heads in the areas surrounding the switching schools. </li><li><b>It was an an open and EU-compliant competitive process</b>. Not to cast aspersions about other MIS tendering processes, but not all schools / LAs / MATs run the most rigorous processes. United Learning went "full-OJEU" (i.e. they ran a competitive and open process), which means they’ll have needed to be careful and methodical in their approach. It therefore follows that the winner can feel proud of having won in a fair fight. On which note...</li><li><b>It cements Arbor’s position as the fastest growing challenger</b>. It has become increasingly apparent in recent times that there are three main challengers to SIMS: Arbor, Bromcom, and ScholarPack. For at least four terms in a row now, Arbor has been the fastest growing of that pack - but Bromcom have been particularly successful with large, mixed-phase MATs (Ark, Harris, Oasis, David Ross and Hamwic are all customers). So this win will help Arbor to position themselves as a strong large-MAT option. (NB: ScholarPack are primary only, so wouldn’t have been in the running in this case.)</li><li><b>It emphasises how SIMS is struggling with larger MATs</b>. SIMS were already down to 48% of large (30+ school) MATs in Autumn 2019. Since then, Hamwic have announced a move to Bromcom, and now UL are moving to Arbor. Those changes alone will reduce SIMS down to a 39% share of large MATs by # of school (assuming no offsetting gains), with Arbor and Bromcom both having solid double-digit shares of this subsector. SIMS keep the plurality, but perhaps not for that much longer. So, if you believe that large MATs lead the way in how smaller MATs behave, this is a trend that could have a ripple effect for years to come. </li><li><b>SIMS aren't winning over large MATs with their cloud proposition (yet)</b>. <a href="https://unitedlearning.org.uk/tenders/mis">This tender was explicitly for a cloud MIS</a>. So if SIMS bid, they did so based on their cloud offer. The fact they didn't win means they aren't yet succeeding on that front, at least with more complex MATs. It also is another nod to the fact that MATs really care about the benefits that cloud can offer around security/resilience/value: UL weren't willing to consider a MIS that <i>wasn't</i> in the cloud.</li><li><b>MATs can still procure during COVID</b>. UL started this process in 2019, but you'd have forgiven them for pausing things because of COVID. But clearly the trust doesn't see any issues with ploughing ahead in spite of the pandemic. Other MATs looking on may well think "well, if a a 72 school trust can do it, we can too."</li></ol></div><div><br /></div>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-15868924305062436832020-07-13T02:12:00.001-07:002020-07-13T02:17:25.919-07:00Expect MIS switching volumes to decline in 2019/20<div><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms", trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">Disclaimer: I have past, present and (hopefully) future commercial relationships with most of the UK's MIS vendors. Nonetheless I aim to write this blog impartially, from the perspective of a neutral observer. If you have questions about this analysis, or any other blog, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">LinkedIn</a> or via <a href="mailto:josh@edtechexperts.co.uk" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">email</a>. <b>I also now provide MIS market datasets and reports as a service</b> - get in touch for more info.</i></div><div><br /></div><div>It's been a pretty hectic few months for MIS market watchers. First <a href="https://junipereducation.org/juniper-education-boosts-its-school-management-software-offering-with-acquisition-of-pupil-asset/">Pupil Asset were sold to Juniper Education</a>; then <a href="https://www.capita.com/news/capita-prepares-disposal-of-education-software-business">Capita announced it was putting its Education Software division</a> (i.e. SIMS and a few other bits and bobs) up for sale. So, with plenty of people having reason to keep an eye on the market, I decided to take a look at the Jan 2020 English State School MIS census data. </div><div><br /></div><div>And the news is... underwhelming. The headline is that <b>only 140 schools switched MIS between October 2019 and Jan 2020</b>. Given that over 800 schools changed MIS over the twelve months preceding that period, that's nothing to shout about.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>To understand this number in a historical context, I decided to put together a term-on-term dataset. I only started collecting and cleaning termly (as opposed to annual) data in Sep 2018, so I have five terms of data to play with. Here are a few<span> </span> vizzes from that dataset, followed by my conclusions:</div></div><div><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1594595276256" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt=' ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/En/EnglishMISJan2020term-by-term/Jan20termbyterm/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="EnglishMISJan2020term-by-term/Jan20termbyterm" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/En/EnglishMISJan2020term-by-term/Jan20termbyterm/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-GB" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1594595276256'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='560px';vizElement.style.height='677px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
</div><div><br /></div><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Switching is slightly down on 2018-19</b>. 180 schools switched between October 2018 and January 2019 compared to 140 between October 2019 and January 2020. In other words, compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, switching is down. That said, the autumn-spring period was also the lowest-volume period last year, so the reduction could be linked to the fact that schools don't particularly want to switch MIS over the autumn term / Christmas break. Still, when you consider the fact COVID is likely to lead some schools to postpone system changes between the spring and autumn terms of this year, I think it's a fairly safe bet that switching will be down in 2019-20, compared to the previous academic year. </li><li><b>SIMS didn't lose much ground over the past term</b>. SIMS' market share dropped from 75.1% to 74.8%. That's hardly an earth shattering decline, but nor is it a sign of market share stabilising. Given recent trends, the limited losses may count as good news for Capita as they prepare the business for sale.</li><li><b><b>Bromcom, Arbor and ScholarPack have emerged as the three leading challengers</b><span style="font-weight: 400;">. 86% of the switchers over the term were won by Arbor (39%), Bromcom (24%) and ScholarPack (23%). Those numbers track pretty closely with the average over the four terms I examined (Arbor 35%; Bromcom 21%; ScholarPack 21%). I think it's fair to say these three are now the leading challengers, because...</span></b></li><li><b>Pupil Asset's growth has stalled</b>. In the past term, Pupil Asset gained just one school. In each of the three previous terms they had low double-digit wins. That may be a concern for their new owners, who will no doubt have high hopes for their new acquisition. Mind you, they only lost 2 schools over the past term, and over the four quarters they lost just 10 schools, which is fewer than any of the other notable challengers (ScholarPack 11; Bromcom 12; Arbor 14; SchoolPod 18; Advanced 62; RM 120). So it would seem that their existing customers are happy enough to stick with them; the challenge for Juniper now is to work out how to persuade other schools to switch to them. </li><li><b>The Advanced turnaround hasn't started yet</b>. Advanced won no schools over the period, while losing 11. I understand that there is considerable effort and investment going into reversing Advanced's decline, but it isn't translating into new business yet.</li><li><b>RM Integris continues to be... fine?</b> Integris is always a weird MIS to write about. They remain the clear second-place vendor in terms of market share by schools (9.6%), and unlike SIMS, their product is cloud-based and has been for some time. So you'd think there'd be some sort of growth story in their numbers... but there just isn't. Alongside 4 wins, Integris lost 24 over the past term, bringing total losses to 120 over the four-term period. Their market share looks pretty stable; but while other vendors have found a winning formula to nibble away at SIMS' share, RM are actually dropping ever so slightly. </li></ol></div><div>A final word on data validation: for those of you who look <i>really</i> closely at the numbers, you'll notice that the switching totals for prior periods are slightly different than those given in previous blogs. That's mostly because I've come up with some new techniques for identifying schools that switched during or after academisation. At that point, schools get issued with new unique codes, so you need to do some jiggery pokery if you want to match the "old" and "new" school records over time. It's also partly because all schools in Bournemouth and Poole changed their "LA" codes a couple of years ago, and since I rely on those codes to work out who switched, I needed to do some file cleansing to spot switchers in that area. Which leads to my final observation of the blog, which is that writing about MIS has turned me into someone who likes to gossip about changes in LA codes. <i>What have I become? </i></div>Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-11151533472205307282020-06-20T09:28:00.008-07:002020-06-25T17:32:12.212-07:00What Capita's proposed sale of SIMS means for the UK MIS market<i>Disclaimer: I have past, present and (hopefully) future commercial relationships with most of the UK's MIS vendors. Nonetheless I always try to write this blog impartially - my aim is to comment on the market from a neutral perspective; not to pick sides. If you have questions about this analysis, or any other blog, contact me on <a href="https://twitter.com/bringmoredata">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaperryuk/">LinkedIn</a> or via <a href="mailto:josh@edtechexperts.co.uk">email</a>. <br /></i><br />Yesterday Education Investor announced that <a href="https://www.educationinvestor.co.uk/ShowArticle.aspx?ID=9626">Capita are eyeing the sale of SIMS</a> [paywall]. According to the trade publication:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Capita will look to sell its education software solutions (ESS) unit for at least £500 million as the listed business services provider’s board this week prepares to approve an auction, EducationInvestor Global can exclusively reveal."</blockquote>
(SIMS is the main asset in the <a href="https://www.capitaeducationsoftware.co.uk/">ESS division</a>.)<br />
<br />
The article contained a range of interesting nuggets, including the fact that ESS generates EBITDA of £50m a year, and that Capita is hoping for a price-to-earnings multiple of 10-14. I hadn't seen a profit number for ESS before: Capita's group 2019 accounts don't provide that level of granularity, but they do report an overall operating adjusted operating profit of £306m on £3.65b of revenue, and the performance of the broader software unit was reported as a profit of £103m on £375m of revenue. The one number we're missing is the percentage of Capita Software's revenue that is generated by ESS, but helpfully <a href="https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej146/files/2019-09/capita-software-investor-event-slides-jan-2019.pdf">this Capita investor presentation</a> gives that as 26% of the total in 2017. So, assuming no significant change in the breakdown since then, it's fair to assume ESS has revenues of c. £100m.<br />
<br />
This means we can extrapolate that:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Capita ESS makes c. £50m of profit on £100m of revenues.</li>
<li>ESS accounts for under 3% of Capita's revenue (100m / 3670m) and 16% of profits (50m/306m).</li>
<li>ESS comprises around a quarter of the software unit's revenue (100m / 375m) and almost 50% of its profits (50m / 103m).</li>
</ul>
<br />
In other words, however you look at it, ESS is a cash cow.<br />
<br />
So what should we deduce from recent developments? Here are my thoughts.<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><b>Capita think they'll generate more value from selling SIMS than from retaining it</b>. That may sound self-evident, but the numbers are striking. The company thinks they can get £500-700m from the sale. The <a href="https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/capita-plc-ordinary-2-115p">entire group market capitalisation</a> as I write this is £719m, and the enterprise value (i.e. the company's total value, including debt and suchlike) is <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/CPI.L/key-statistics/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAONdjGNSqLvSKBCUw7uziGayKdukg6LzitB6_0u4gUDzLfd61Sha0eQWPtAeVOGeX-v9UZ7GvSGORN-5NehpZ_xx3TU4HwsUbyvZokEk-HVSIQTYmWuUC5VJLN9JMpT25tdJu5-wjGsfpJez-nMEEwIYxSJwU3wC8EB6zhHvzCj">somewhere in the region of £2.2bn</a>. So, yeah, I can see how you'd be ok with giving up 16% of profits in return for a fee that equates to 22-32% of your enterprise value, and 70-97% of your market capitalisation. Or, to put it another way, if your group price/earnings ratio is barely above 3, you might be happy to sell one of your bits for a p/e ratio of 10 or more - particularly if you're holding a lot of debt that you'd like to repay.</li>
<li><b>SIMS' churn may have unsettled Capita</b>. In <a href="http://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2019/12/mis-market-moves-2019-challengers-are.html">my blog about 2019 MIS market moves</a>, I included a chart of SIMS churn in English state schools (% of customers leaving year on year). It shows that churn has grown pretty steadily from 0.1% in 2012 to 3.6% in 2019. That's still not anything to be ashamed of, but the result is that SIMS market share when measured by # of English state schools declined from 83% to 75% between 2015 and 2019. </li>
<li><b>Capita are happy to let someone else manage the move to the cloud</b>. The main business within ESS is still SIMS 7 - the locally hosted form of SIMS - which has traditionally been sold via local authority support units. Capita have been trying to move SIMS to the cloud for the best part of a decade - first with a pilot project for Northern Ireland that was shelved, and then more recently with the <a href="https://www.capita-sims.co.uk/resources/article/capita-sims-unveils-cloud-mis-for-primary-schools-to-reduce-teacher-workload-and">SIMS Primary initiative</a> that was launched at BETT in January 2018. ESS doesn't publish numbers on how many schools have yet made the move to cloud, but we can infer that usage is still very limited from the fact that the SIMS Primary website offers users a chance to register interest to be "the first to know when it's available". The future success of SIMS will of course be bound up in the success of its cloud offering, but clearly Capita are perfectly happy to let someone else manage the headache of how to make the move. </li>
<li><b>SIMS' margins may be hard to sustain</b>. However they've managed to price SIMS historically, the key thing to understand margins in the <i>future</i> business is the cloud pricing. And, happily, there is a way of doing just this, since all major MIS vendors now publish a version of their cloud price list on <a href="https://www.digitalmarketplace.service.gov.uk/buyers/direct-award/g-cloud/start">G Cloud</a>, the government's procurement portal. SIMS's cloud offering is still only available for primaries, so let's focus on primary pricing. Using <a href="https://assets.digitalmarketplace.service.gov.uk/g-cloud-11/documents/92566/612940947059065-pricing-document-2019-05-07-1223.pdf">SIMS Primary's G Cloud entry</a> we can see that an average primary of 290 students would pay £4,412 per year for the core software. I calculate the G Cloud cost for comparison of their leading competitors (ScholarPack, Arbor, Bromcom and Pupil Asset) as between £2,370 and £2,865. Now, I should stress, this isn't close to a perfect like-for-like comparison - the range of features included in the list price varies wildly, so the total cost of ownership may be quite different from these headline numbers. But even with those caveats, Capita does <i>look</i> more expensive. That may have been acceptable to customers of the locally hosted product, but in cloud-world SIMS is kind-of the challenger, given the successful cloud businesses that surround them. And with that positioning, they may experience downward pressure on prices from the competition.</li>
<li><b>Capita has needed cash. Its competitors don't (yet)</b>. Capita's challenges over the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2018/jan/31/the-guardian-view-on-capitas-woes-another-warning-of-a-system-in-crisis">past</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/23/capita-losses-worsen-debt-outsourcing-carillion">two</a> <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/79f20d9a-463d-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb">years</a> were well-publicised, and I'm hardly the right person to add any further commentary. However, what I assume is that as a result, Capita would be keen to generate cash, either by way of profits or selling assets at a good price. At the same time, they're now entering a phase of MIS competition where the competitors appear to be less focused on profitability. Take Arbor (currently the fastest growing challenger) as an example. <a href="https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/mH3AyFIBeNUB3b4IzeeUuc_HfqQ-3aAnatwxaJJqRTc/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3CMOTPDWD%2F20200620%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20200620T100121Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEJ7%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJHMEUCIBJzk%2FuLjNjZNS0J4qMRX0pmT7lGd%2FiJynSrNdQIzDRiAiEAi6o8d2Xi89bc8CLbZ9DaoIXzy5aQjVd9djhsCkF5oI4qtAMIJxACGgw0NDkyMjkwMzI4MjIiDOol%2FTQAP7Iqnb2o%2FCqRAwCxIHHkR36PlumtR5PtCMSlxfFGCx8pxvY%2BxuvQaRvKQcRBtQMswV1AIX63Y9VBS7819a%2FDEqXQGcl%2FgmqEF6XdVdr7NNufJC%2Fc%2BMhNRu3nM4tEsgCXClxxf%2F%2Fs78Olw1miagGr9t9O3EZ4VfnoC8AxBiu3IPrk%2FTykBQ5789ihiH5mGOhzPy44GMI3DUHwsxsCz1p3zJvRWXMQIDS5QBnkTObdljIoq16WsclLnSwdQEMEzfEgqXuDKL7FuLVqyVU4x%2FQYgLhj6C2QSpppU2bFhfUKPknUdt5Ltl094u4HEdurFlx9GInH3TUm42q0B2ZNX23TAlK2V7bhoXt7AxQk4N55UBhseNLnWnnpybKZIc3bZ1UmsxUd6OWgdY7869rVTPcoAyoyT3YTi9WoJHLORacV0ogBeFp%2BKSJtEbNAWR8rstOllxfIOgFqC1yjTCP5UjGgms0CDwY518HDXM2JUvlAT2v%2B7PCvFyEzKjw3c55OiGJEySEq74%2FqlESZPO0bjuVaSNoG0TCZZQhc8Hy%2BMMrPtvcFOusB14YdIIRkiXr3LvTsh4vCKubTzLQG9h9UJP%2BDJJcqAkUNJf5vwQFeYKBw8FJPGlkfo95KJ47%2FNg0vdT6VphlGoiv8PkF8ajW8ZzVfT41xKw5tBsOYkerkA%2F6dvh5UwMXW%2FB%2BP5I4fMzHjdlpCdLhdyuACrAHbqVN7j%2FwVM1rZ7cDr1vs%2B96Qp3CmZvPk7ZJD2XEoufcgmsVUapARi5GsXlkSA8J5LjgrYV8PhZ6rD4DtJdVHftY9Z0%2BvGwtQD4ain9vSRwRmElUJ4m5BPE8%2BOqIR9T97N%2FAHpm1hWqqSHNhC7qiyIvZKecoiSdw%3D%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=6a4fe3599413fb16c567f37216b195ddc69d5630048547596d8b1ce08bc3b947">They recently published accounts</a>, which showed an EBITDA loss of £1.9m (taking into account amortisation, depreciation and exceptionals) on £3.1m of turnover. So maybe an onslaught of investment from competitors makes Capita more open to selling.</li>
<li><b>School may not care that much about market rumours... </b>While all this is fun for market watchers, the typical school is unlikely to care that much. One helpful historical defence of SIMS' market share has been how schools procure. Traditionally, the Local Authority entered into contracts with vendors - usually SIMS - and then they (or linked support units) resold licenses to schools. That meant that the typical LA school was unlikely to "go rogue" and buy their own MIS outside the LA's arrangement. Equally, LAs could benefit from the arrangement; support units were at liberty to add a margin on when reselling licenses, and the local support teams were often liked by schools. As a consequence, I'd be surprised if there were many individual schools planning to change their MIS buying decisions based on press rumours about SIMS' parent company. While I like to pore over this stuff on my weekends, the typical school head has better things to do.</li>
<li><b>...However, Multi Academy Trusts and SIMS support units might</b>. These days there are market forces beyond the opinions of LAs and individual schools. First, Multi Academy Trusts (MATs) have become a thing, and they procure differently. Unlike individual schools, increasingly MATs have senior leaders (procurement managers, IT directors, data people and education teams) with the bandwidth and market awareness to run rigorous procurement exercises. Furthermore, challenger vendors have been successful in building functionality that appeals to MATs. That has contributed to a decline in SIMS' market share with MATs (69% in 2019 vs 75% for all English state schools) - and the people who have overseen those switches are more likely to notice ownership uncertainty than stretched staff in individual schools. Then, even the traditional SIMS Support Units are increasingly arms length or standalone businesses, and they may feel unsettled by the potential for change in how their main (and often sole) partner operates. As a consequence, this news may make them more likely to explore other options and start supporting challenger MIS in a way that leads to further choice for schools that are still part of LAs. Mind you, I could also imagine it going the other way: if Support Units have been frustrated about recent developments at Capita (and the slow rollout of cloud SIMS can't have been fun for them) then maybe a sale would seem like a positive development. </li>
</ol>
<div>
<i>Thanks to <a href="https://www.theassignmentreport.com/">Ed Tranham</a> of The Assignment Report (great education journalism), Chris Kirk of <a href="https://www.cjkassociates.co/">CJK Associates</a> (high quality education strategy consulting), Nick Finnemore of <a href="https://www.finnemoreconsulting.com/">Finnemore Consulting</a> (equally awesome education product and strategy consulting) and <a href="https://mediataylor.com/">Richard Taylor</a> (legendary education entrepreneur who is never shy around an opinion) for conversations, emails and links that helped me to write this blog.</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>25/06/20 UPDATE: Since I wrote this piece Capita have released a press release on the planned disposal of ESS, which can be found <a href="https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/capita/news/rns/story/w3gqjyx">here</a>.</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>25/06/20 UPDATE: This blog was edited to consider the enterprise value as well as as the market capitalisation in terms of the potential sales price for SIMS.</i></div>
Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1816462493588021342.post-36664336356306511192020-04-13T03:38:00.000-07:002020-04-13T03:51:51.315-07:00Faronics Wise: a new(ish) entrant to the English MIS marketWhen I'm asked what advice I'd give to a company wishing to gain a foothold in the English MIS market in 2020, my response is usually something along the lines of "start at least five years ago, or buy someone who did".<br />
<br />
It's not that you <i>couldn't</i> start now. But, you know, it's really hard to get your name out there! Schools generally aren't spending every day pondering their MIS choices; if they were, it wouldn't be the case that the highest churn we've seen in the market over the past decade is a whopping (drumroll)... 4%! At that rate, schools change their MIS at the glacial pace of every 25 years.<br />
<br />
That said, we do now see a strong slate of challenger MIS picking up market share... but it's been a slog. The biggest winners of the past three years (Scholarpack, Arbor and Bromcom) have all been refining their offer since at least 2012, and if you speak to the people who made that happen, none of them tells you it's been a doddle. But still, over time they each found their niche, and kudos to them for that. They picked a strategy, executed on that strategy, and kept banging on about it until eventually, one day, schools started to hear it and believe it and felt confident enough to make the switch. But nobody has found a short-cut to that process; rather, it would appear that those MIS with the clearest differentiation and a consistent long-term strategy have ended up with the greatest traction.<br />
<br />
Anyway, this isn't supposed to be a blog about the wider market. Instead I'm writing about a new(ish) entrant, because a few days ago I had my first catch up with Chris Stockley, who oversees the commercial side of <a href="http://faronicswise.co.uk/">Faronics Wise</a>. Before the chat I really didn't know too much about them, and so I thought I'd summarise what I learned for anyone similarly in the dark.<br />
<br />
But first, allow me one more piece of preamble. I've said this before, but I should reiterate that I don't see it as my role to pick <i>winners</i> in the MIS market. Though these days I do have friends and clients within the MIS world, this blog will always aim to shine a light on the market while remaining studiously neutral. So what follows isn't an endorsement of this (or any) particular vendor; rather, it's a little bit of information about a new player, which may be of use to those who don't yet know about them.<br />
<br />
So, who are Faronics? Well, they're a Vancouver-based technology company and a global player in classroom management software (the kind of thing that Impero and NetSupport do). They employ over 100 people and the CEO, Farid Ali, has led the company since founding it in 1996. Chris says that this corporate structure allows them to be patient.<br />
<br />
Clearly that patience has come in handy, as Chris tells me he's been working on the rollout of the product for a full five years now. That came as a pleasant surprise to me, since in the latest English market stats they only have one school customer. Clearly, Faronics have been playing the long game: despite the extended development lead time, they only chose to launch the product at BETT 2019, once the census reporting module was ready. Chris also points out that they have had notable successes elsewhere, and particularly in the international market, where they have 1m system users (80% of which are in Europe). I'm also told they have almost 200 English language schools in Spain alone.<br />
<br />
Importantly, Faronics have spent that time refining their product-market fit for English state schools, and it looks like they've found a niche. They showed up <a href="http://bringmoredata.blogspot.com/2018/07/mis-market-moves-majority-of-switchers.html">on my radar in 2018</a> with that first English state school: Cranbury College, a Pupil Referral Unit (PRU) in Reading. Chris tells me that this choice was no accident - they have been focusing on the needs of PRUs, Alternative Provision (AP) and Special schools in particular. They're interested in other types of schools, of course: the international schools are all-phase, and Chris talks about functionality they hope will resonate with English primaries, like formative quizzes and their parent-school portal. But still, a lot of time seems to have gone into building the behaviour module (see screenshot below), which sets them up as an intriguing competitor to SchoolPod, Arbor and RM Integris, who are the strongest cloud vendors in the PRU / AP part of the MIS market (77% of cloud MIS share between them, and 22% of total share; SIMS is on 71%). Chris also says their cover module - which has features like managing cover when staff are teaching remotely in hospitals - is popular.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgefqFp6Tjh6hUnhb2nJyFgBT5NKP4AVRsE5DoMp4Dbw2E5j3kSfQIn_w0PF9wrYowz1AgZNxh2hxhuWIGO9eVI_vvfbV_pj-MKdsMyNKw7jvYP8MrfZT2HcqqBUJKiSQj1TCHPPJBX5-M/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-04-09+at+12.07.10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1418" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgefqFp6Tjh6hUnhb2nJyFgBT5NKP4AVRsE5DoMp4Dbw2E5j3kSfQIn_w0PF9wrYowz1AgZNxh2hxhuWIGO9eVI_vvfbV_pj-MKdsMyNKw7jvYP8MrfZT2HcqqBUJKiSQj1TCHPPJBX5-M/s640/Screen+Shot+2020-04-09+at+12.07.10.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Screenshot of Faronics behaviour module</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Another intriguing detail was that Chris says they're actually already working with 22 schools in England. He expects at least some of these to show up on the census data soon, but explains the lag by saying that Faronics treat MIS switching as a project that happens over a period of time. I was also interested to learn that their product manager is Tom Guy, previously a publisher at GL Assessment with a background in SEN products. No doubt Tom offers useful experience when planning their Special school / formative assessment features.<br />
<br />
Will Faronics succeed in the notoriously tricky English MIS market? Well, like I say, thankfully that's not my job to decide! But what I will say is that they appear to be a serious company with a long-term plan. I look forward to tracking their progres...Joshua Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09297571923836490827noreply@blogger.com